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Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa

Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa
Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976-2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.

2050-084X
Pigott, David M.
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Golding, Nick
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Mylne, Adrian
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Huang, Zhi
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Henry, Andrew J.
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Weiss, Daniel J.
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Brady, Oliver J.
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Kraemer, Moritz U.G.
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Smith, David L.
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Moyes, Catherine L.
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Bhatt, Samir
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Gething, Peter W.
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Horby, Peter W.
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Bogoch, Isaac I.
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Brownstein, John S.
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Mekaru, Sumiko R.
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Khan, Kamran
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Hay, Simon I.
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Pigott, David M.
f2e004f2-dc51-427b-a460-8d0ad9895514
Golding, Nick
bc8ee56b-8c7f-4186-a75b-afa0c6aec210
Mylne, Adrian
663a11eb-06ad-4ace-9c37-76c6698bca62
Huang, Zhi
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Henry, Andrew J.
86bff399-aa36-4935-8d1b-96aa7e89dedd
Weiss, Daniel J.
a5b8e0dc-a451-496d-ad27-35944684cdcf
Brady, Oliver J.
2acbd374-26d3-4e56-9e19-558eef1d4f9b
Kraemer, Moritz U.G.
5d2b1994-4d71-4eb8-93dd-d948ba164fa2
Smith, David L.
5c918948-ded2-42d8-82c1-a746a4bc3b6e
Moyes, Catherine L.
274a614b-3830-4796-99b2-736758a6611b
Bhatt, Samir
b29447e1-3caa-4c11-8e5c-5daa0011b9fa
Gething, Peter W.
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Horby, Peter W.
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Bogoch, Isaac I.
2f25f533-9b71-483b-8100-17647ba0926b
Brownstein, John S.
eafaa4d0-0c88-42a5-8bf0-ee164671ee34
Mekaru, Sumiko R.
8c7dc95b-900d-48c3-a43b-e30e4c452f32
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Khan, Kamran
f55abc91-5af0-4175-a845-90e88ab2e45a
Hay, Simon I.
471d3ae4-a3c1-4d29-93e3-a90d44471b00

Pigott, David M., Golding, Nick, Mylne, Adrian, Huang, Zhi, Henry, Andrew J., Weiss, Daniel J., Brady, Oliver J., Kraemer, Moritz U.G., Smith, David L., Moyes, Catherine L., Bhatt, Samir, Gething, Peter W., Horby, Peter W., Bogoch, Isaac I., Brownstein, John S., Mekaru, Sumiko R., Tatem, Andrew J., Khan, Kamran and Hay, Simon I. (2014) Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa. eLife, 3. (doi:10.7554/eLife.04395).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976-2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.

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More information

Published date: 8 September 2014
Organisations: Global Env Change & Earth Observation, WorldPop, Geography & Environment, Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 368691
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/368691
ISSN: 2050-084X
PURE UUID: 07c2156b-ad4c-4f48-8585-dc5c7b169dc0
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 11 Sep 2014 09:28
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:43

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Contributors

Author: David M. Pigott
Author: Nick Golding
Author: Adrian Mylne
Author: Zhi Huang
Author: Andrew J. Henry
Author: Daniel J. Weiss
Author: Oliver J. Brady
Author: Moritz U.G. Kraemer
Author: David L. Smith
Author: Catherine L. Moyes
Author: Samir Bhatt
Author: Peter W. Gething
Author: Peter W. Horby
Author: Isaac I. Bogoch
Author: John S. Brownstein
Author: Sumiko R. Mekaru
Author: Andrew J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: Kamran Khan
Author: Simon I. Hay

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