Calendar effects, market conditions and the adaptive market hypothesis: evidence from long-run U.S. data
Calendar effects, market conditions and the adaptive market hypothesis: evidence from long-run U.S. data
In this paper, we examine the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) through four well-known calendar anomalies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1900 to 2013. We use subsample analysis as well as rolling window analysis to overcome difficulties with each method type of analysis. We also create implied investment strategies based on each calendar anomaly as well as determining which market conditions are more favourable to the calendar anomaly performance. The results show that all four calendar anomalies support the AMH, with each calendar anomaly's performance varying over time. We also find that some of the calendar anomalies are only present during certain market conditions. Overall, our results suggest that the AMH offers a better explanation of the behaviour of calendar anomalies than the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
adaptive market hypothesis, calendar effects, market conditions, market efficiency
154-166
Urquhart, Andrew
ee369df1-95b5-4cdf-bc24-f1be77357c03
McGroarty, F.
693a5396-8e01-4d68-8973-d74184c03072
Urquhart, Andrew
ee369df1-95b5-4cdf-bc24-f1be77357c03
McGroarty, F.
693a5396-8e01-4d68-8973-d74184c03072
Urquhart, Andrew and McGroarty, F.
(2014)
Calendar effects, market conditions and the adaptive market hypothesis: evidence from long-run U.S. data.
International Review of Financial Analysis, 35, .
Abstract
In this paper, we examine the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) through four well-known calendar anomalies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1900 to 2013. We use subsample analysis as well as rolling window analysis to overcome difficulties with each method type of analysis. We also create implied investment strategies based on each calendar anomaly as well as determining which market conditions are more favourable to the calendar anomaly performance. The results show that all four calendar anomalies support the AMH, with each calendar anomaly's performance varying over time. We also find that some of the calendar anomalies are only present during certain market conditions. Overall, our results suggest that the AMH offers a better explanation of the behaviour of calendar anomalies than the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
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e-pub ahead of print date: 23 October 2014
Keywords:
adaptive market hypothesis, calendar effects, market conditions, market efficiency
Organisations:
Centre for Digital, Interactive & Data Driven Marketing
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 368998
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/368998
ISSN: 1057-5219
PURE UUID: 02b05876-88eb-4f39-b85f-22539cc7897d
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Date deposited: 18 Sep 2014 13:26
Last modified: 27 Apr 2022 01:59
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Contributors
Author:
Andrew Urquhart
Author:
F. McGroarty
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