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The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations

The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations
The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations
Thirty years after the discovery of HIV-1, the early transmission, dissemination, and establishment of the virus in human populations remain unclear. Using statistical approaches applied to HIV-1 sequence data from central Africa, we show that from the 1920s Kinshasa (in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo) was the focus of early transmission and the source of pre-1960 pandemic viruses elsewhere. Location and dating estimates were validated using the earliest HIV-1 archival sample, also from Kinshasa. The epidemic histories of HIV-1 group M and nonpandemic group O were similar until ~1960, after which group M underwent an epidemiological transition and outpaced regional population growth. Our results reconstruct the early dynamics of HIV-1 and emphasize the role of social changes and transport networks in the establishment of this virus in human populations.
0036-8075
56-61
Faria, N.R.
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Rambaut, A.
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Suchard, M.A.
7927425a-5f75-4ddd-ba84-3c9eb06bc714
Baele, G.
fe4710f8-a426-43a7-8cad-e4c2187d9660
Bedford, T.
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Ward, M.J.
a199bc96-75b6-415c-bffe-e68e8a00b468
Tatem, A.J.
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Sousa, J. D.
aa37c64a-e0c1-4136-af59-faf73cb647ea
Arinaminpathy, N.
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Pepin, J.
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Posada, D.
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Peeters, M.
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Pybus, O.G.
5fa128e1-8eb8-4d38-b925-1d7869a07f99
Lemey, P.
d89cf95d-442a-4d96-876d-f26e455a2816
Faria, N.R.
8b4b0b65-3b0c-4c17-bf71-08e4dd94d6ce
Rambaut, A.
eb1cb910-0eb8-4652-a4be-6a9ffa5d4fbe
Suchard, M.A.
7927425a-5f75-4ddd-ba84-3c9eb06bc714
Baele, G.
fe4710f8-a426-43a7-8cad-e4c2187d9660
Bedford, T.
4896c883-fb48-4051-a187-55d51eeca98c
Ward, M.J.
a199bc96-75b6-415c-bffe-e68e8a00b468
Tatem, A.J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Sousa, J. D.
aa37c64a-e0c1-4136-af59-faf73cb647ea
Arinaminpathy, N.
00f29cca-5e82-4d2b-8b0b-fccd83643893
Pepin, J.
de62f959-4619-42fc-a0ce-b6d101306733
Posada, D.
55ae8e84-b0b8-4521-9b20-c2ea66f9c193
Peeters, M.
3d417b42-84f1-4687-bccd-b8b963188b9a
Pybus, O.G.
5fa128e1-8eb8-4d38-b925-1d7869a07f99
Lemey, P.
d89cf95d-442a-4d96-876d-f26e455a2816

Faria, N.R., Rambaut, A., Suchard, M.A., Baele, G., Bedford, T., Ward, M.J., Tatem, A.J., Sousa, J. D., Arinaminpathy, N., Pepin, J., Posada, D., Peeters, M., Pybus, O.G. and Lemey, P. (2014) The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations. Science, 346 (6205), 56-61. (doi:10.1126/science.1256739). (PMID:25278604)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Thirty years after the discovery of HIV-1, the early transmission, dissemination, and establishment of the virus in human populations remain unclear. Using statistical approaches applied to HIV-1 sequence data from central Africa, we show that from the 1920s Kinshasa (in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo) was the focus of early transmission and the source of pre-1960 pandemic viruses elsewhere. Location and dating estimates were validated using the earliest HIV-1 archival sample, also from Kinshasa. The epidemic histories of HIV-1 group M and nonpandemic group O were similar until ~1960, after which group M underwent an epidemiological transition and outpaced regional population growth. Our results reconstruct the early dynamics of HIV-1 and emphasize the role of social changes and transport networks in the establishment of this virus in human populations.

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More information

Published date: 3 September 2014
Organisations: Global Env Change & Earth Observation, WorldPop, Geography & Environment, Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 369651
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/369651
ISSN: 0036-8075
PURE UUID: c8124cca-ad38-42f6-b33a-98a9f29a5178
ORCID for A.J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

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Date deposited: 08 Oct 2014 12:41
Last modified: 23 Jul 2022 02:05

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Contributors

Author: N.R. Faria
Author: A. Rambaut
Author: M.A. Suchard
Author: G. Baele
Author: T. Bedford
Author: M.J. Ward
Author: A.J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: J. D. Sousa
Author: N. Arinaminpathy
Author: J. Pepin
Author: D. Posada
Author: M. Peeters
Author: O.G. Pybus
Author: P. Lemey

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