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Capture recapture to estimate criminal populations

Capture recapture to estimate criminal populations
Capture recapture to estimate criminal populations
Methodology is presented that allows to estimate the size of population from a single register, such as a police register of offenders. A capture-recapture variable is constructed from Dutch police records and is a count of the police contacts for a violation. A population size estimate is derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model or variants of this model. As an example, estimates for perpetrators of domestic violence are presented. It is concluded that the methodology is useful, provided it is used with care.
978-1-4614-5689-6
267-276
Springer
Heijden, Peter G.M.
85157917-3b33-4683-81be-713f987fd612
Cruyff, Maarten
68bcfa19-3d85-4b0f-a6a4-6e148b265f19
Böhning, Dankmar
e59cede5-81be-4dfa-afec-0e81ac3b7f6c
Bruinsma, G.J.N.
Weisburd, D.L.
Heijden, Peter G.M.
85157917-3b33-4683-81be-713f987fd612
Cruyff, Maarten
68bcfa19-3d85-4b0f-a6a4-6e148b265f19
Böhning, Dankmar
e59cede5-81be-4dfa-afec-0e81ac3b7f6c
Bruinsma, G.J.N.
Weisburd, D.L.

Heijden, Peter G.M., Cruyff, Maarten and Böhning, Dankmar (2014) Capture recapture to estimate criminal populations. In, Bruinsma, G.J.N. and Weisburd, D.L. (eds.) Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice. Berlin, DE. Springer, pp. 267-276. (doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-5690-2_662).

Record type: Book Section

Abstract

Methodology is presented that allows to estimate the size of population from a single register, such as a police register of offenders. A capture-recapture variable is constructed from Dutch police records and is a count of the police contacts for a violation. A population size estimate is derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model or variants of this model. As an example, estimates for perpetrators of domestic violence are presented. It is concluded that the methodology is useful, provided it is used with care.

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More information

Published date: 2014
Organisations: Social Statistics & Demography

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 369749
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/369749
ISBN: 978-1-4614-5689-6
PURE UUID: 30372273-13c6-49d9-a9fb-492b62e31fc0
ORCID for Peter G.M. Heijden: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3345-096X

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Date deposited: 06 Oct 2014 12:38
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:46

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Contributors

Author: Maarten Cruyff
Author: Dankmar Böhning
Editor: G.J.N. Bruinsma
Editor: D.L. Weisburd

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