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Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake

Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake
Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake
Climate model experiments reveal that transient global warming is nearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. However, it is not quantitatively understood how this near-linear dependence between warming and cumulative carbon emissions arises in transient climate simulations. Here, we present a theoretically derived equation of the dependence of global warming on cumulative carbon emissions over time. For an atmosphere–ocean system, our analysis identifies a surface warming response to cumulative carbon emissions of 1.5 ± 0.7 K for every 1,000 Pg of carbon emitted. This surface warming response is reduced by typically 10–20% by the end of the century and beyond. The climate response remains nearly constant on multi-decadal to centennial timescales as a result of partially opposing effects of oceanic uptake of heat and carbon. The resulting warming then becomes proportional to cumulative carbon emissions after many centuries, as noted earlier9. When we incorporate estimates of terrestrial carbon uptake, the surface warming response is reduced to 1.1 ± 0.5 K for every 1,000 Pg of carbon emitted, but this modification is unlikely to significantly affect how the climate response changes over time. We suggest that our theoretical framework may be used to diagnose the global warming response in climate models and mechanistically understand the differences between their projections.
1752-0894
29-34
Goodwin, Philip
87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd
Williams, Richard G.
2155309e-1c07-4365-b46a-04baeb2fb63c
Ridgwell, Andy
769cea5c-e033-456a-8b53-51dfa307dc35
Goodwin, Philip
87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd
Williams, Richard G.
2155309e-1c07-4365-b46a-04baeb2fb63c
Ridgwell, Andy
769cea5c-e033-456a-8b53-51dfa307dc35

Goodwin, Philip, Williams, Richard G. and Ridgwell, Andy (2015) Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake. Nature Geoscience, 8, 29-34. (doi:10.1038/ngeo2304).

Record type: Letter

Abstract

Climate model experiments reveal that transient global warming is nearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. However, it is not quantitatively understood how this near-linear dependence between warming and cumulative carbon emissions arises in transient climate simulations. Here, we present a theoretically derived equation of the dependence of global warming on cumulative carbon emissions over time. For an atmosphere–ocean system, our analysis identifies a surface warming response to cumulative carbon emissions of 1.5 ± 0.7 K for every 1,000 Pg of carbon emitted. This surface warming response is reduced by typically 10–20% by the end of the century and beyond. The climate response remains nearly constant on multi-decadal to centennial timescales as a result of partially opposing effects of oceanic uptake of heat and carbon. The resulting warming then becomes proportional to cumulative carbon emissions after many centuries, as noted earlier9. When we incorporate estimates of terrestrial carbon uptake, the surface warming response is reduced to 1.1 ± 0.5 K for every 1,000 Pg of carbon emitted, but this modification is unlikely to significantly affect how the climate response changes over time. We suggest that our theoretical framework may be used to diagnose the global warming response in climate models and mechanistically understand the differences between their projections.

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Goodwin_Williams_Ridgwell_NGS-2014-05-00901A_eprints.pdf - Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 27 October 2014
e-pub ahead of print date: 1 December 2014
Published date: January 2015
Organisations: Paleooceanography & Palaeoclimate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 372460
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/372460
ISSN: 1752-0894
PURE UUID: fb8ad8c4-6435-4a4f-aeb7-7a3245a41b7a
ORCID for Philip Goodwin: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2575-8948

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 04 Dec 2014 17:13
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:47

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Contributors

Author: Philip Goodwin ORCID iD
Author: Richard G. Williams
Author: Andy Ridgwell

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