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Changing determinants of low fertility and diffusion: a spatial analysis for Italy

Changing determinants of low fertility and diffusion: a spatial analysis for Italy
Changing determinants of low fertility and diffusion: a spatial analysis for Italy
Italy is a case study in lowest-low fertility. Its internal heterogeneity is substantial and changes over time. Historically, the South had higher fertility, but in recent years it the North has become the area with the highest fertility. This paper adopts a diffusionist perspective to fertility to study the current temporal and spatial trends in Italian provincial fertility, considering indicators of secularization, female employment, migrant fertility and economic development. We make use of geographically weighted regressions and spatial panel regressions from spatial econometrics to model explicitly spatial dependence in fertility among Italian provinces over the period between 1999 and 2010. Results show that spatial dependence in provincial fertility persists even after controlling for standard correlates of fertility, consistently with a diffusionist perspective. Further, we find that the local association between fertility and its correlates is not homogeneous across provinces. The strength and in some cases also the direction of such associations vary spatially.
low fertility, italy, geographically weighted regression, spatial panel models
2042-4116
57
ESRC Centre for Population Change
Vitali, Agnese
56acb6b8-5161-4106-9e73-20712840d675
Billari, Francesco
6d720d80-0134-46bf-857f-685c09e9b005
McGowan, Teresa
4524e894-04de-4822-8508-f4b966e12ae2
Vitali, Agnese
56acb6b8-5161-4106-9e73-20712840d675
Billari, Francesco
6d720d80-0134-46bf-857f-685c09e9b005
McGowan, Teresa
4524e894-04de-4822-8508-f4b966e12ae2

Vitali, Agnese and Billari, Francesco , McGowan, Teresa (ed.) (2014) Changing determinants of low fertility and diffusion: a spatial analysis for Italy (ESRC Centre for Population Change Working Paper Series, 57) Southampton, GB. ESRC Centre for Population Change 33pp.

Record type: Monograph (Working Paper)

Abstract

Italy is a case study in lowest-low fertility. Its internal heterogeneity is substantial and changes over time. Historically, the South had higher fertility, but in recent years it the North has become the area with the highest fertility. This paper adopts a diffusionist perspective to fertility to study the current temporal and spatial trends in Italian provincial fertility, considering indicators of secularization, female employment, migrant fertility and economic development. We make use of geographically weighted regressions and spatial panel regressions from spatial econometrics to model explicitly spatial dependence in fertility among Italian provinces over the period between 1999 and 2010. Results show that spatial dependence in provincial fertility persists even after controlling for standard correlates of fertility, consistently with a diffusionist perspective. Further, we find that the local association between fertility and its correlates is not homogeneous across provinces. The strength and in some cases also the direction of such associations vary spatially.

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Published date: December 2014
Keywords: low fertility, italy, geographically weighted regression, spatial panel models
Organisations: Social Statistics & Demography, Centre for Population Change

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 373055
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/373055
ISSN: 2042-4116
PURE UUID: 641f7242-4509-4ac8-8472-7766f3e4198d
ORCID for Agnese Vitali: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-0029-9447

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 06 Jan 2015 13:00
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 12:24

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