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How many dentists does Sri Lanka need? Modelling to inform policy decisions

How many dentists does Sri Lanka need? Modelling to inform policy decisions
How many dentists does Sri Lanka need? Modelling to inform policy decisions
This paper describes a model which has been used to inform Government policy in Sri Lanka. The model has two components, representing supply and demand for dental care services. The supply-side component (the dental workforce model) uses system dynamics to represent the career progression of dentists from recruitment and training at the university dental school, through different career paths through to retirement. The demand-side model calculates a range of future demand scenarios for dental care, based on different assumptions about Sri Lanka’s potential future economic development. The combined model was used by the Sri Lankan government to plan better provision of state-funded dental care and the future university intake of dental students. Data collection for both models was challenging, and required some innovative research. The model itself, and its successful application, raise a number of wider issues concerning model implementation and acceptability by clients and model users.
0160-5682
1566–1577
Brailsford, S.C.
634585ff-c828-46ca-b33d-7ac017dda04f
De Silva, M.D.
398a415f-14fe-405d-aace-65b166596b38
Brailsford, S.C.
634585ff-c828-46ca-b33d-7ac017dda04f
De Silva, M.D.
398a415f-14fe-405d-aace-65b166596b38

Brailsford, S.C. and De Silva, M.D. (2015) How many dentists does Sri Lanka need? Modelling to inform policy decisions. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 66 (9), 1566–1577. (doi:10.1057/jors.2014.136).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper describes a model which has been used to inform Government policy in Sri Lanka. The model has two components, representing supply and demand for dental care services. The supply-side component (the dental workforce model) uses system dynamics to represent the career progression of dentists from recruitment and training at the university dental school, through different career paths through to retirement. The demand-side model calculates a range of future demand scenarios for dental care, based on different assumptions about Sri Lanka’s potential future economic development. The combined model was used by the Sri Lankan government to plan better provision of state-funded dental care and the future university intake of dental students. Data collection for both models was challenging, and required some innovative research. The model itself, and its successful application, raise a number of wider issues concerning model implementation and acceptability by clients and model users.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 2015
e-pub ahead of print date: 28 January 2015
Published date: 2015
Organisations: Southampton Business School

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 373118
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/373118
ISSN: 0160-5682
PURE UUID: d13bce18-2196-4e3f-b1aa-fd4727e33420
ORCID for S.C. Brailsford: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-6665-8230

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 07 Jan 2015 13:59
Last modified: 01 Dec 2018 01:36

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Contributors

Author: S.C. Brailsford ORCID iD
Author: M.D. De Silva

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