Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: the case of bus deregulation revisited
Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: the case of bus deregulation revisited
In a previous paper in this journal, we suggested that the bus reforms that were implemented in Britain from the mid-1980s onwards were welfare positive for both London and for the rest of Great Britain outside London (Preston & Almutairi, 2013). However, we cautioned that this work was preliminary and likely to be sensitive to various assumptions made. In this paper, we have undertaken more detailed sensitivity analysis as follows. First, we have developed separate demand models for London and for the rest of Great Britain. Secondly, we have developed cost models to determine the extent to which costs are determined by external factors (such as fuel prices) or partially external factors (such as labour costs). Thirdly, we have developed fares models to assess the impact of changes in subsidy, in terms of both revenue support and concessionary fare reimbursements. We have also changed the measurements of consumer surplus so as to be more consistent with underlying economic theory. This work confirms the sensitivity of the long term evaluation of transport policy to assumptions concerning the counterfactual and trends in demand, supply and prices. Any policy lessons inferred from these long term evaluations need to take these sensitivities into account
local bus, deregulation, welfare analysis
263-269
Preston, John
ef81c42e-c896-4768-92d1-052662037f0b
Almutairi, Talal
9d5b3419-c49c-4e33-b629-e7aca61a353b
December 2014
Preston, John
ef81c42e-c896-4768-92d1-052662037f0b
Almutairi, Talal
9d5b3419-c49c-4e33-b629-e7aca61a353b
Preston, John and Almutairi, Talal
(2014)
Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: the case of bus deregulation revisited.
[in special issue: Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport (selected papers from the Thredbo 13 conference]
Research in Transportation Economics, 48, .
(doi:10.1016/j.retrec.2014.09.051).
Abstract
In a previous paper in this journal, we suggested that the bus reforms that were implemented in Britain from the mid-1980s onwards were welfare positive for both London and for the rest of Great Britain outside London (Preston & Almutairi, 2013). However, we cautioned that this work was preliminary and likely to be sensitive to various assumptions made. In this paper, we have undertaken more detailed sensitivity analysis as follows. First, we have developed separate demand models for London and for the rest of Great Britain. Secondly, we have developed cost models to determine the extent to which costs are determined by external factors (such as fuel prices) or partially external factors (such as labour costs). Thirdly, we have developed fares models to assess the impact of changes in subsidy, in terms of both revenue support and concessionary fare reimbursements. We have also changed the measurements of consumer surplus so as to be more consistent with underlying economic theory. This work confirms the sensitivity of the long term evaluation of transport policy to assumptions concerning the counterfactual and trends in demand, supply and prices. Any policy lessons inferred from these long term evaluations need to take these sensitivities into account
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e-pub ahead of print date: 19 October 2014
Published date: December 2014
Keywords:
local bus, deregulation, welfare analysis
Organisations:
Transportation Group
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Local EPrints ID: 373135
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/373135
ISSN: 0739-8859
PURE UUID: 98eeb266-7231-499a-9247-707996c41bb8
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Date deposited: 09 Jan 2015 11:25
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:25
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Author:
Talal Almutairi
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