A modified flood severity assessment for enhanced decision support: application to the Boscastle flash flood of 2004
A modified flood severity assessment for enhanced decision support: application to the Boscastle flash flood of 2004
A modified flash flood severity assessment is presented, based on scoring a set of factors according to their potential for generating extreme catchment-scale flooding. Improvements are made to the index through incorporation of parameter uncertainties, managing data absence, and clearer graphical communication. The motive for proposing these changes is to better inform flood managers during the development of a flash flood that may require an emergency response. This modified decision-support system is demonstrated for the Boscastle flood of 2004 and other historical floods in the United Kingdom. For Boscastle, the extreme nature of the flood is underestimated, which is likely to be due to the lack of sophistication in weighting flood parameters. However, the proposed amendments are able to rapidly reflect the reliability of a catchment severity rating, which may further enhance this technique as a decision-support tool alongside radar observations of localized storms.
extreme events, hydrometeorology, forecasting, communications/decision making, flood events, risk assessment
1290-1297
Murray, Steve
a45e43e2-26b4-4d51-9fc4-23a331b5e570
Smith, Alan
63ec33c7-fa1d-41ae-a0e1-5a96b7140664
Phillips, Jemery
8dbb84f8-4d50-44a0-84ca-a6f0a874f412
2012
Murray, Steve
a45e43e2-26b4-4d51-9fc4-23a331b5e570
Smith, Alan
63ec33c7-fa1d-41ae-a0e1-5a96b7140664
Phillips, Jemery
8dbb84f8-4d50-44a0-84ca-a6f0a874f412
Murray, Steve, Smith, Alan and Phillips, Jemery
(2012)
A modified flood severity assessment for enhanced decision support: application to the Boscastle flash flood of 2004.
Weather and Forecasting, 27, .
(doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00033.1).
Abstract
A modified flash flood severity assessment is presented, based on scoring a set of factors according to their potential for generating extreme catchment-scale flooding. Improvements are made to the index through incorporation of parameter uncertainties, managing data absence, and clearer graphical communication. The motive for proposing these changes is to better inform flood managers during the development of a flash flood that may require an emergency response. This modified decision-support system is demonstrated for the Boscastle flood of 2004 and other historical floods in the United Kingdom. For Boscastle, the extreme nature of the flood is underestimated, which is likely to be due to the lack of sophistication in weighting flood parameters. However, the proposed amendments are able to rapidly reflect the reliability of a catchment severity rating, which may further enhance this technique as a decision-support tool alongside radar observations of localized storms.
Text
ASmith Boscastle WAF-D-12-00033.pdf
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Published date: 2012
Keywords:
extreme events, hydrometeorology, forecasting, communications/decision making, flood events, risk assessment
Organisations:
Geography & Environment
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 373242
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/373242
ISSN: 0882-8156
PURE UUID: 9ccede30-c3c6-478a-8061-e12b735440a6
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Date deposited: 13 Jan 2015 10:27
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 18:50
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Author:
Steve Murray
Author:
Alan Smith
Author:
Jemery Phillips
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