Hand, foot and mouth disease: spatiotemporal transmission and climate
Hand, foot and mouth disease: spatiotemporal transmission and climate
BACKGROUND:
The Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD) is the most common infectious disease in China, its total incidence being around 500,000~1,000,000 cases per year. The composite space-time disease variation is the result of underlining attribute mechanisms that could provide clues about the physiologic and demographic determinants of disease transmission and also guide the appropriate allocation of medical resources to control the disease.
METHODS AND FINDINGS:
HFMD cases were aggregated into 1456 counties and during a period of 11 months. Suspected climate attributes to HFMD were recorded monthly at 674 stations throughout the country and subsequently interpolated within 1456 × 11 cells across space-time (same as the number of HFMD cases) using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method while taking into consideration the relevant uncertainty sources. The dimensionalities of the two datasets together with the integrated dataset combining the two previous ones are very high when the topologies of the space-time relationships between cells are taken into account. Using a self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm the dataset dimensionality was effectively reduced into 2 dimensions, while the spatiotemporal attribute structure was maintained. 16 types of spatiotemporal HFMD transmission were identified, and 3-4 high spatial incidence clusters of the HFMD types were found throughout China, which are basically within the scope of the monthly climate (precipitation) types.
CONCLUSIONS:
HFMD propagates in a composite space-time domain rather than showing a purely spatial and purely temporal variation. There is a clear relationship between HFMD occurrence and climate. HFMD cases are geographically clustered and closely linked to the monthly precipitation types of the region. The occurrence of the former depends on the later.
25-[10pp]
Wang, Jin-feng
b8ccd997-188b-4d55-af4b-02f6189625ba
Guo, Yan-Sha
bda80f95-c09a-416a-890e-20ab5cf6b07b
Christakos, George
5807f87e-8558-4a92-a1f7-80996f89100f
Yang, Wei-Zhong
35daea8e-8d21-43ec-bc93-f39c1c304316
Liao, Yi-Lan
3c9787c2-5e95-45d4-b4fa-2523fc5dc33c
Li, Zhong-Jie
c6c1bcc6-e23f-4b30-bc15-ce18abbab914
Li, Xiao-Zhou
ced34730-83c9-4b8b-9241-74da17a62c9e
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Chen, Hong-Yan
9b95d4a1-4c98-48fc-baf5-ff755de00f1d
5 April 2011
Wang, Jin-feng
b8ccd997-188b-4d55-af4b-02f6189625ba
Guo, Yan-Sha
bda80f95-c09a-416a-890e-20ab5cf6b07b
Christakos, George
5807f87e-8558-4a92-a1f7-80996f89100f
Yang, Wei-Zhong
35daea8e-8d21-43ec-bc93-f39c1c304316
Liao, Yi-Lan
3c9787c2-5e95-45d4-b4fa-2523fc5dc33c
Li, Zhong-Jie
c6c1bcc6-e23f-4b30-bc15-ce18abbab914
Li, Xiao-Zhou
ced34730-83c9-4b8b-9241-74da17a62c9e
Lai, Shengjie
b57a5fe8-cfb6-4fa7-b414-a98bb891b001
Chen, Hong-Yan
9b95d4a1-4c98-48fc-baf5-ff755de00f1d
Wang, Jin-feng, Guo, Yan-Sha, Christakos, George, Yang, Wei-Zhong, Liao, Yi-Lan, Li, Zhong-Jie, Li, Xiao-Zhou, Lai, Shengjie and Chen, Hong-Yan
(2011)
Hand, foot and mouth disease: spatiotemporal transmission and climate.
International Journal of Health Geographics, 10 (1), .
(doi:10.1186/1476-072X-10-25).
(PMID:21466689)
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
The Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD) is the most common infectious disease in China, its total incidence being around 500,000~1,000,000 cases per year. The composite space-time disease variation is the result of underlining attribute mechanisms that could provide clues about the physiologic and demographic determinants of disease transmission and also guide the appropriate allocation of medical resources to control the disease.
METHODS AND FINDINGS:
HFMD cases were aggregated into 1456 counties and during a period of 11 months. Suspected climate attributes to HFMD were recorded monthly at 674 stations throughout the country and subsequently interpolated within 1456 × 11 cells across space-time (same as the number of HFMD cases) using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method while taking into consideration the relevant uncertainty sources. The dimensionalities of the two datasets together with the integrated dataset combining the two previous ones are very high when the topologies of the space-time relationships between cells are taken into account. Using a self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm the dataset dimensionality was effectively reduced into 2 dimensions, while the spatiotemporal attribute structure was maintained. 16 types of spatiotemporal HFMD transmission were identified, and 3-4 high spatial incidence clusters of the HFMD types were found throughout China, which are basically within the scope of the monthly climate (precipitation) types.
CONCLUSIONS:
HFMD propagates in a composite space-time domain rather than showing a purely spatial and purely temporal variation. There is a clear relationship between HFMD occurrence and climate. HFMD cases are geographically clustered and closely linked to the monthly precipitation types of the region. The occurrence of the former depends on the later.
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Accepted/In Press date: 5 April 2011
Published date: 5 April 2011
Organisations:
Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 373607
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/373607
ISSN: 1476-072X
PURE UUID: 26cc30b5-cce4-46a3-ba89-e67e464b5189
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Date deposited: 26 Jan 2015 13:15
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 04:02
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Contributors
Author:
Jin-feng Wang
Author:
Yan-Sha Guo
Author:
George Christakos
Author:
Wei-Zhong Yang
Author:
Yi-Lan Liao
Author:
Zhong-Jie Li
Author:
Xiao-Zhou Li
Author:
Hong-Yan Chen
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