Predicting the Timing and Quantity of LDC Debt Rescheduling

Lloyd-Ellis, H., McKenzie, G.W. and Thomas, S.H. (1991) Predicting the Timing and Quantity of LDC Debt Rescheduling. Economics Letters, 32 (1), 67-73. (doi:10.1016/0165-1765(90)90051-2).

Abstract

In this paper we estimate a Type 2 Tobit model to explain both the timing and quantity of developing country debt rescheduling using an annual data set for 27 countries from 1977–1981 and six-monthly data for 59 countries from 1977–1985. We obtain a satisfactory model for both the timing and quantity of rescheduling which will be more useful for country risk analysis than models which predict the timing alone.

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