Modelling socio-economic vulnerability to floods:comparison of methods developed for European and Asian case studies

Kienberger, Stefan, Johnson, Fiifi Amoako, Zeil, Peter, Hutton, Craig, Lang, Stephan and Clark, Mike (2014) Modelling socio-economic vulnerability to floods:comparison of methods developed for European and Asian case studies Southampton, GB. University of Southampton 9pp. (doi:10.1596/1813-9450-3793).

Abstract

Within a twinning framework supported by the FP6 research project BRAHMATWINN, an approach has been developed to effectively model and map vulnerability to floods in the Brahmaputra/Assam (India) and Salzach River Catchment, Austria. The intention of the research is to assess the socio-economic component of risk through a joint conceptual level vulnerability approach. The approach reflects the wider objective and conceptualizations of the IPCC (International Panel for Climate Change) framework. Within this framework vulnerability is defined as a function of adaptive capacity and sensitivity. As sensitivity and adaptive capacity are multi-dimensional constructs a wide range of possible input parameters are potentially of relevance and there is a need to be pragmatic about the datasets available and the subsequent selection of indicators. To enhance the range for parameter selection, the research methodology utilises census and household survey as well as land use/land cover data to derive and assess vulnerability. For both test site areas, appropriate indicators have been chosen from these sources and represented in sub-domains based upon literature and in-field interviews and substantial workshops with local experts. In both test sites linear combination and regionalisation algorithms have been applied to provide appropriate weighting to the chosen indicators resulting in vulnerability maps that reflect the perceptions of the stakeholders. Spatial units have been identified which represent common characteristics of vulnerability. A valuable outcome of the twinning approach has been the delineation of two clear paradigms in the thinking of the production and utilization of vulnerability maps. In the European context vulnerability is strongly characterised through assets, whereas in Assam the focus lies on the defining characteristics of poverty at the community level. In the Asian context, where the poorer communities might typically be associated with low asset it is possible that a map of asset vulnerability is the inverse of a vulnerability map based upon community vulnerability. As such this highlights the importance of considering how a vulnerability map will be utilised in a decision making/planning context. In the frame of the FP6 research project BRAHMATWINN (Twinning European and South Asian River Basins to enhance capacity and implement adaptive management approaches) an approach has been developed to model vulnerability to floods in Assam (India) and the Salzach River catchment, Austria. The overall objective of BRAHMATWINN is to enhance and improve capacity to carry out a harmonised integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach as addressed by the European Water Initiative in headwater river systems of alpine mountain massifs in respect to impacts from likely climate change, and to transfer professional IWRM expertise, approaches and tools based on case studies carried out in twinning European and Asian river basins. Specifically, the project intends to delineate 'Water Resource Response Units' (WRRUs) which intend to meet the objective of analyzing the driving forces, pressures, state, impact, and response of system components, deriving from the natural and human environment regarding the vulnerability to impact by climate change in "what-if?" scenarios. In the first instance, a conceptual approach and consensus has been achieved in defining vulnerability. In case study areas in each catchment, Assam in the Upper Brahmaputra River Basin, and the Salzach River in the Upper Danube River Basin, the vulnerability has been modelled and mapped. Whilst adopting the broad conceptual framework common to both case studies, Assam has a dominantly rural poverty context suggesting a focus that views the lack of asset as the root cause of low adaptive capacity but with sensitivity defined upon limitations to the asset base. In the European setting the indicators for measuring vulnerability have a strong focus on asset based approaches whilst also integrating the socio-economic characteristic of the population. The Asian approach shares with the European case study a stakeholder consultation phase in order to provide a relative weighting for the selected indicators and consciously accepts the subjectivity of the output as a representation of the opinions of the consulted group. The model results such as the spatial quantification of socio-economic vulnerability should feed into the modelling of WRRUs (Water Resource Response Units) and additionally allow decision-makers in the region to identify vulnerable areas and possible means of intervention. Within this paper we compare both methodological approaches within the modelling of socio-economic vulnerabilities and raise issues on requirements and limitations.

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Contributors

Author: Craig Hutton

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