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The timeline of elections: a comparative perspective

The timeline of elections: a comparative perspective
The timeline of elections: a comparative perspective
Scholars are only beginning to understand the evolution of electoral sentiment over time. How do preferences come into focus over the electoral cycle in different countries? Do they evolve in patterned ways? Does the evolution vary across countries? This paper addresses these issues. We consider differences in political institutions and how they might impact voter preferences over the course of the election cycle. We then outline an empirical analysis relating support for parties or candidates in pre-election polls to their final vote. The analysis relies on over 26,000 vote intention polls in 45 countries since 1942, covering 312 discrete electoral cycles. Our results indicate that early polls contain substantial information about the final result but that they become increasingly informative over the election cycle. Although the degree to which this is true varies across countries in important and understandable ways given differences in political institutions, the pattern is strikingly general.
0092-5853
219-233
Jennings, Will
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Wlezien, Christopher
e5c172ce-90fc-4bb3-989f-f11e4acb7e53
Jennings, Will
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Wlezien, Christopher
e5c172ce-90fc-4bb3-989f-f11e4acb7e53

Jennings, Will and Wlezien, Christopher (2016) The timeline of elections: a comparative perspective. American Journal of Political Science, 60 (1), 219-233. (doi:10.1111/ajps.12189).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Scholars are only beginning to understand the evolution of electoral sentiment over time. How do preferences come into focus over the electoral cycle in different countries? Do they evolve in patterned ways? Does the evolution vary across countries? This paper addresses these issues. We consider differences in political institutions and how they might impact voter preferences over the course of the election cycle. We then outline an empirical analysis relating support for parties or candidates in pre-election polls to their final vote. The analysis relies on over 26,000 vote intention polls in 45 countries since 1942, covering 312 discrete electoral cycles. Our results indicate that early polls contain substantial information about the final result but that they become increasingly informative over the election cycle. Although the degree to which this is true varies across countries in important and understandable ways given differences in political institutions, the pattern is strikingly general.

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Accepted/In Press date: 27 January 2015
e-pub ahead of print date: 22 June 2015
Published date: 6 January 2016
Organisations: Politics & International Relations

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 374116
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/374116
ISSN: 0092-5853
PURE UUID: 7e2ad643-6b68-4864-8c59-bc4022bf2d0b
ORCID for Will Jennings: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9007-8896

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Date deposited: 09 Feb 2015 09:53
Last modified: 09 Jan 2022 03:39

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Contributors

Author: Will Jennings ORCID iD
Author: Christopher Wlezien

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