Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models
Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models
Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r?~?0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find an observation-based reduction in N of ??0.31?±?0.21?W?m?2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. While present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation.
ocean uptake, net radiation
1205-1213
Smith, Doug M.
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Allan, Richard P.
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Coward, Andrew C.
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Eade, Rosie
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Hyder, Patrick
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Liu, Chunlei
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Loeb, Norman G.
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Palmer, Matthew D.
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Roberts, Chris D.
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Scaife, Adam A.
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28 February 2015
Smith, Doug M.
9987667b-4cfe-4faa-a3f0-388df7cd1fad
Allan, Richard P.
0ebcf6b4-ba53-43f2-8931-319280d6650c
Coward, Andrew C.
53b78140-2e65-476a-b287-e8384a65224b
Eade, Rosie
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Hyder, Patrick
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Liu, Chunlei
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Loeb, Norman G.
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Palmer, Matthew D.
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Roberts, Chris D.
c108c5f2-3bc1-4356-b43c-d44f344d2d78
Scaife, Adam A.
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Smith, Doug M., Allan, Richard P., Coward, Andrew C., Eade, Rosie, Hyder, Patrick, Liu, Chunlei, Loeb, Norman G., Palmer, Matthew D., Roberts, Chris D. and Scaife, Adam A.
(2015)
Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models.
Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (4), .
(doi:10.1002/2014GL062669).
Abstract
Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r?~?0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find an observation-based reduction in N of ??0.31?±?0.21?W?m?2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. While present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation.
Text
Smith_et_al-2015-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf
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Accepted/In Press date: 19 February 2015
Published date: 28 February 2015
Keywords:
ocean uptake, net radiation
Organisations:
Marine Systems Modelling
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 374555
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/374555
ISSN: 0094-8276
PURE UUID: 06346cc4-4c26-470e-9974-48679bc3ff93
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Date deposited: 20 Feb 2015 10:50
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 19:09
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Contributors
Author:
Doug M. Smith
Author:
Richard P. Allan
Author:
Andrew C. Coward
Author:
Rosie Eade
Author:
Patrick Hyder
Author:
Chunlei Liu
Author:
Norman G. Loeb
Author:
Matthew D. Palmer
Author:
Chris D. Roberts
Author:
Adam A. Scaife
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