Exploration of chronic kidney disease prevalence estimates using new measures of kidney function in the health survey for England

Abstract

Background: chronic kidney disease (CKD) diagnosis relies on glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) estimation, traditionally using the creatinine-based Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKDEPI) equation performs better in estimating eGFR and predicting mortality and CKD progression risk. Cystatin C is an alternative glomerular filtration marker less influenced by muscle mass. CKD risk stratification is improved by combining creatinine eGFR with cystatin C and urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (uACR). We aimed to identify the impact of introducing CKDEPI and cystatin C on the estimated prevalence and risk stratification of CKD in England and to describe prevalence and associations of cystatin C.

Methods and findings: cross sectional study of 5799 people in the nationally representative 2009 and 2010 Health Surveys for England. Primary outcome measures: prevalence of MDRD, CKDEPI and cystatin C-defined eGFR<60ml/min/1.73m2; prevalence of CKD biomarker combinations (creatinine, cystatin C, uACR). Using CKDEPI instead of MDRD reduced the prevalence of eGFR<60ml/min/1.73m2 from 6.0% (95% CI 5.4–6.6%) to 5.2% (4.7–5.8%) equivalent to around 340,000 fewer individuals in England. Those reclassified as not having CKD evidenced a lower risk profile. Prevalence of cystatin C eGFR<60ml/min/1.73m2 was 7.7% and independently associated with age, lack of qualifications, being an ex-smoker, BMI, hypertension, and albuminuria. Measuring cystatin C in the 3.9% people with CKDEPI-defined eGFR<60ml/min/1.73m2 without albuminuria (CKD Category G3a A1) reclassified about a third into a lower risk group with one of three biomarkers and two thirds into a group with two of three. Measuring cystatin C in the 6.7% people with CKDEPI eGFR >60ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria (CKD Category G1-2) reclassified almost a tenth into a higher risk group.

Limitations: cross sectional study, single eGFR measure, no measured (‘true’) GFR.

Conclusions: introducing the CKDEPI equation and targeted cystatin C measurement reduces estimated CKD prevalence and improves risk stratification

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Identifiers

ORCID for Simon D.S. Fraser: orcid.org/0000-0002-4172-4406

ORCID for Graham Moon: orcid.org/0000-0002-7256-8397

ORCID for Paul J. Roderick: orcid.org/0000-0001-9475-6850

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