Forensic judgment and decision making

Fraser-Mackenzie, Peter A.F., Bucht, Rebecca E. and Dror, Itiel E. (2013) Forensic judgment and decision making. In, Comparative Decision Making. Oxford, GB. Oxford University Press, pp. 385-415. (doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199856800.003.0038).

Abstract

This chapter describes the decision making process by forensic experts. Forensic testimony is generally considered more reliable than most other forms of evidence and plays a key role in establishing guilt or innocence. Despite exaggerations in the media, automated, computerized methods are of limited capability and require experts to make judgment calls at various steps. Abductive reasoning is often required, perhaps inviting confirmation bias, particularly with decision making often based on reaching weight-of-evidence thresholds. Forensic scientists are expected to help find a conclusive outcome rather than the probabilistic one more compatible with scientific reasoning, and the need for rapid closure can lead to decisions based on incomplete data. Yet the interpretation of bottom-up information based on top-down information may lead to distortions, as in any type of data-driven decision making. Many of the same biases and difficulties that undermine human reasoning in other contexts reappear here too.

This record has no associated files available for download.

Contributors

Download statistics