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Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission

Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission
Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission

Background Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of ‘vectorial capacity’, a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model.


Methods In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity.


Results We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density.


Conclusions These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission.
larval control, malaria control policy, micro-simulation models, plasmodium falciparum, plasmodium vivax, vectorial capacity
1876-3413
121-129
Brady, O. J.
2d11da21-541a-4d2c-8601-f42505683cf4
Godfray, H. C. J.
3de8448e-9cf0-419d-9e8e-93dfd51330f2
Tatem, A. J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Gething, P. W.
40d219e9-97df-446b-b6c9-862716ed5a61
Cohen, J. M.
3995b92a-463f-4fe9-8fa7-65a4931225b7
McKenzie, F. E.
f8c53f0b-79f4-456d-bffc-692d09c1c8d8
Alex Perkins, T.
8db87d25-7868-4d35-b2a7-f60c78745bd1
Reiner, R. C.
713b5b29-685b-4b24-8970-a02c243ba213
Tusting, L. S.
eff75458-5439-4d68-be7e-561c5115a2ff
Scott, T. W.
053ee5f0-0aff-4c36-a157-ef9a4bc48fa2
Lindsay, S. W.
bcd3ff51-78dc-4163-a17f-6daa5d89d37d
Hay, S. I.
067a664b-0123-405d-85e8-e9c99d168054
Smith, D. L.
d19a1da6-4a9f-49b8-b602-036b61715c72
Brady, O. J.
2d11da21-541a-4d2c-8601-f42505683cf4
Godfray, H. C. J.
3de8448e-9cf0-419d-9e8e-93dfd51330f2
Tatem, A. J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Gething, P. W.
40d219e9-97df-446b-b6c9-862716ed5a61
Cohen, J. M.
3995b92a-463f-4fe9-8fa7-65a4931225b7
McKenzie, F. E.
f8c53f0b-79f4-456d-bffc-692d09c1c8d8
Alex Perkins, T.
8db87d25-7868-4d35-b2a7-f60c78745bd1
Reiner, R. C.
713b5b29-685b-4b24-8970-a02c243ba213
Tusting, L. S.
eff75458-5439-4d68-be7e-561c5115a2ff
Scott, T. W.
053ee5f0-0aff-4c36-a157-ef9a4bc48fa2
Lindsay, S. W.
bcd3ff51-78dc-4163-a17f-6daa5d89d37d
Hay, S. I.
067a664b-0123-405d-85e8-e9c99d168054
Smith, D. L.
d19a1da6-4a9f-49b8-b602-036b61715c72

Brady, O. J., Godfray, H. C. J., Tatem, A. J., Gething, P. W., Cohen, J. M., McKenzie, F. E., Alex Perkins, T., Reiner, R. C., Tusting, L. S., Scott, T. W., Lindsay, S. W., Hay, S. I. and Smith, D. L. (2015) Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission. International Health, 7 (2), 121-129. (doi:10.1093/inthealth/ihv010).

Record type: Article

Abstract


Background Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of ‘vectorial capacity’, a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model.


Methods In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity.


Results We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density.


Conclusions These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 22 January 2015
Published date: 2015
Keywords: larval control, malaria control policy, micro-simulation models, plasmodium falciparum, plasmodium vivax, vectorial capacity
Organisations: Global Env Change & Earth Observation, WorldPop, Geography & Environment, Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 374817
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/374817
ISSN: 1876-3413
PURE UUID: 5b417775-29eb-4fbc-80ca-b5694b1d0d2e
ORCID for A. J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 03 Mar 2015 14:16
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 12:28

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Contributors

Author: O. J. Brady
Author: H. C. J. Godfray
Author: A. J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: P. W. Gething
Author: J. M. Cohen
Author: F. E. McKenzie
Author: T. Alex Perkins
Author: R. C. Reiner
Author: L. S. Tusting
Author: T. W. Scott
Author: S. W. Lindsay
Author: S. I. Hay
Author: D. L. Smith

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