Transcript

• 1. The Time and Timing of UK Domestic Energy DEMAND Otago Energy Research Centre Symposium 2014 Ben Anderson b.anderson@soton.ac.uk (@dataknut) Sustainable Energy Research Group, University of Southampton DEMAND End User Energy Demand Research Centre
• 2. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The Menu 2 • What’s the problem • Examples: • ‘Peaks’ • ‘Evolving Demand’ • Lessons learnt • Next Steps
• 3. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 What’s the problem?  We need to know what drives domestic energy demand 3
• 4. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Why?  Domestic demand for electricity is particularly uneven…  Infrastructure problems:  Network ‘import’ overload on weekday evenings;  Network ‘export’ overload at mid-day on weekdays due to under-used PV generation;  Inefficient use of resources (night-time trough)  Carbon problems:  Peak load can demand ‘dirty’ generation 6 UK Housing Energy Fact File Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied homes, England 2010-11 Gas consumption The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling to predict nhouseholds’ e ergy consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation. Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low gas use. There are, it seems, many different ways to be a high or low gas Gas use varies enormously from household to household, and the variation has more to do with behaviour than how dwellings are built. 8 0 0 7 0 0 6 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 :0 0 0 2 : 0 0 0 4 :0 0 0 6 :0 0 0 8 : 0 0 1 0 :0 0 1 2 :0 0 1 4 : 0 0 1 6 :0 0 1 8 : 0 0 2 0 : 0 0 2 2 :0 0 H e a t i n g W a t e r h e a t i n g E l e c t r i c s h o w e r s W a s h i n g / d r y i n g C o o k i n g L i g h t i n g C o l d a p p l i a n c e s I C T A u d i o v i s u a l O t h e r U n k n o w n W a t t s  Cost problems:  Peak generation is higher priced energy
• 5. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Why?  Domestic demand for electricity is particularly uneven…  Infrastructure problems:  Network ‘import’ overload on weekday evenings;  Network ‘export’ overload at mid-day on weekdays due to under-used PV generation;  Inefficient use of resources (night-time trough)  Carbon problems:  Peak load can demand ‘dirty’ generation 7 UK Housing Energy Fact File Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied homes, England 2010-11 Gas consumption The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling to predict nhouseholds’ e ergy consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation. Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low gas use. There are, it seems, many different ways to be a high or low gas Gas use varies enormously from household to household, and the variation has more to do with behaviour than how dwellings are built. 8 0 0 7 0 0 6 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 :0 0 0 2 : 0 0 0 4 :0 0 0 6 :0 0 0 8 : 0 0 1 0 :0 0 1 2 :0 0 1 4 : 0 0 1 6 :0 0 1 8 : 0 0 2 0 : 0 0 2 2 :0 0 H e a t i n g W a t e r h e a t i n g E l e c t r i c s h o w e r s W a s h i n g / d r y i n g C o o k i n g L i g h t i n g C o l d a p p l i a n c e s I C T A u d i o v i s u a l O t h e r U n k n o w n W a t t s  Cost problems:  Peak generation is higher priced energy
• 6. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 What to do? • Storage • Demand Reduction • Just reducing it per se • Demand Response • Shifting it somewhere else in time (or space and time) 8 Filling the trough UK Housing Energy Fact File Reducing Peak load Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied homes, England 2010-11 Gas consumption The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling to predict nhouseholds’ e ergy consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation. Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low gas use. There are, it seems, many different ways to be a high or low gas Gas use varies enormously from household to household, and the variation has more to do with behaviour than how dwellings are built. 8 0 0 7 0 0 6 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 :0 0 0 2 : 0 0 0 4 :0 0 0 6 :0 0 0 8 : 0 0 1 0 :0 0 1 2 :0 0 1 4 : 0 0 1 6 :0 0 1 8 : 0 0 2 0 : 0 0 2 2 :0 0 H e a t i n g W a t e r h e a t i n g E l e c t r i c s h o w e r s W a s h i n g / d r y i n g C o o k i n g L i g h t i n g C o l d a p p l i a n c e s I C T A u d i o v i s u a l O t h e r U n k n o w n W a t t s Filling the trough Reducing Peak load This raises crucial questions: • What do people do during peaks? • How has this (co)-evolved and what does this imply for shifting? • How do energy ‘demands’ emerge from these doings (social practices)?
• 7. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 But there’s another problem… This is an appliance level view •It tells us very little about what people do in peaks (and troughs) •And nothing about change over time But time-use diary data might… 9 UK Housing Energy Fact File Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied homes, England 2010-11 Gas consumption 8 0 0 7 0 0 6 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 :0 0 0 2 :0 0 0 4 :0 0 0 6 :0 0 0 8 :0 0 1 0 :0 0 1 2 :0 0 1 4 :0 0 1 6 :0 0 1 8 :0 0 2 0 :0 0 2 2 :0 0 H e a t in g W a t e r h e a t in g E le c t r i c s h o w e r s W a s h in g / d r y in g C o o k in g L ig h t in g C o ld a p p lia n c e s IC T A u d io v is u a l O t h e r U n k n o w n W a t t s
• 8. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The Menu 10 • What’s the problem? • Examples: • ‘Peaks’ • ‘Evolving Demand’ • Lessons learnt • Next Steps
• 9. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 So what constitutes ‘peak demand’? Source: ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK, weekdays) % of persons reporting 11
• 10. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 What is the ‘average’ day? Monday Friday Source: ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK) % of persons reporting, half hour summaries 12
• 11. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 What is the ‘average’ day? Saturday Sunday Source: ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK) % of persons reporting, half hour summaries 13
• 12. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 What is the ‘average’ day? Saturday Sunday Source: ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK) % of persons reporting, half hour summaries 14
• 13. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Whose peak ? – lifestage dimensions 16-64 (weekdays) 65+ (weekdays) Source: ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK, weekdays) % of persons reporting, half hour summaries 16 http://www.demand.ac.uk/09/11/2014/databyte-peak-dinner/
• 14. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Whose peak ? – individual differences X axis ordered by age within day Source: ONS 2000 Time Use Survey Data (UK, all individuals) 17 Analysis by Giulio Mattioli (@giulio_mattioli) using Visual-TimePAcTS (Ellegård et al, 2010) http://www.demand.ac.uk/13/03/2014/visualising-sequences-of-demand/ 01:00 – 04:00 22:00 – 01:00 19:00 – 22:00 16:00 – 19:00 13:00 – 16:00 10:00 – 13:00 07:00 – 10:00 04:00 – 07:00 • Green: ‘care for oneself’/ sleep • Light blue: ‘care for others’ • Pink: ‘house keeping’ • Purple: ‘recreation’ • Yellow: ‘transport’ • Dark blue: ‘procure and prepare food’ • Red: ‘employed work / school’
• 15. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Whose peak ? – individual differences X axis ordered by age within day Source: ONS 2000 Time Use Survey Data (UK, all individuals) 18 Analysis by Giulio Mattioli (@giulio_mattioli) using Visual-TimePAcTS (Ellegård et al, 2010) http://www.demand.ac.uk/13/03/2014/visualising-sequences-of-demand/ 01:00 – 04:00 22:00 – 01:00 19:00 – 22:00 16:00 – 19:00 13:00 – 16:00 10:00 – 13:00 07:00 – 10:00 04:00 – 07:00 • Green: ‘care for oneself’/ sleep • Light blue: ‘care for others’ • Pink: ‘house keeping’ • Purple: ‘recreation’ • Yellow: ‘transport’ • Dark blue: ‘procure and prepare food’ • Red: ‘employed work / school’
• 16. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The Menu 22 • What’s the problem? • Examples: • ‘Peaks’ • ‘Evolving Demand’ • Summary • Next Steps
• 17. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Use of electricity by appliance type Evolving demand – change is normal 24 9. Chart 4 shows the total amount of electricity consumption by household domestic appliances between 1970 and 2011, which illustrates its steady growth of around 1.7 per cent per year over this period. Chart 4: Electricity consumption by household domestic appliance, by broad type, UK, 1970 to 2011 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 1 Source: DECC, ECUK Table 3.10 2 , 0 0 0 1 , 8 0 0 1 , 6 0 0 1 , 4 0 0 1 , 2 0 0 1 , 0 0 0 8 0 0 6 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 0 10. In 2011, consumer electronics were the largest consuming domestic appliances group with an estimated consumption of 1,839 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent, followed by wet appliances with an estimated consumption of 1,271 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent and cold appliances with an estimated consumption of 1,192 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent. 11. Between 1970 and 2011, electricity consumption from consumer electronics increased by 369 per cent, wet appliances by 146 per cent and cold appliances by T h o u s a n d t o n n e s o f o i l e q u iv a l e n t L i g h t C o l d W e t C o n s u m e r e l e c t r o n i c s H o m e c o m p u t i n g C o o k i n g Owen. 2006. The rise of the machines—a review of energy using products in the home from the 1970s to today., Energy Saving Trust, London.
• 18. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 UK Evolving demand: Laundry 27 • UK Laundry 1974-2005
• 19. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Problem: What is laundry? 28
• 20. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Problem: What is laundry? 29
• 21. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The evolution of laundry I 30 % of recorded laundry as primary or secondary activity Source: Multinational Time Use Survey Dataset (UK, 1974-2005, all 18+)
• 22. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The evolution of laundry II 31 % of recorded laundry as primary or secondary activity Source: Multinational Time Use Survey Dataset (UK, 1974-2005, all 18+)
• 23. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The evolution of laundry III 32 % of recorded laundry as primary or secondary activity % point difference in recorded laundry 1974-2005 Source: Multinational Time Use Survey Dataset (UK, 1974-2005, all 18+)
• 24. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Why? 33 % of recorded laundry as primary or secondary activity Source: Multinational Time Use Survey Dataset (UK, 1974-2005, all 18+)
• 25. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 The Menu 34 • What’s the problem? • Examples: • ‘Peaks’ • ‘Evolving Demand’ • Summary • Next Steps
• 26. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Lessons learnt  If:  energy ‘demands’ are emergent from co-evolving infrastructures and what people do (social practices) then  We can see that:  a range of factors affect how these demands emerge and how they are synchronised to produce ‘peaks’.  Data implications:  Average ‘days’, ‘customers’ and ‘appliance profiles’ won’t do  Modeling implications:  Microsimulation, rather than ‘average types’, is needed to preserve heterogeneity  Policy implications:  Non-energy energy policy  E.g. working hours & schedules influence the time & timing of demand 35
• 27. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Next Steps  Epidemiology of practices?  Which kinds of people are ‘infected’ by similar energy-demanding social practices?  When and how did they spread?  Do sequences matter?  Which sequences of practices are implicated in peak demand?  What happens if they are disrupted?  Spatial distributions?  Do estimated spatial distributions match to known local (LV) network problems?  Can we microsimulate demand response scenarios at local levels? 36
• 28. UK Domestic Energy DEMAND University of Otago Energy Research Conference 2014 Thank you  Ben Anderson  b.anderson@soton.ac.uk  @dataknut  github.com/dataknut  www.energy.soton.ac.uk  www.demand.ac.uk 37