Adapting to sea level rise

Nicholls, R.J. (2014) Adapting to sea level rise. In, Ellis, J.T. and Sherman, D.J. (eds.) Coastal and Marine Hazards, Risks and Disasters. London, GB. Elsevier, pp. 243-270.

Abstract

Coasts contain a large and growing population and economy including world cities such as London, New York, Tokyo, Shanghai, Mumbai, Lagos, and Rio de Janeiro, as well as important habitats and their ecosystem services. Global sea levels are rising due to climate change and this will accelerate through this century: a rise of more than 1 m is possible. In some locations these changes may be exacerbated by (1) increases in storminess due to climate change, although this is less certain, and (2) human-induced subsidence due to ground fluid withdrawal from and drainage of susceptible soils, especially in deltas and alluvial plains. Sea-level rise has a range of potential impacts including higher extreme sea levels (and flooding), coastal erosion, and salinization of surface and ground waters. This threatens the loss of large areas of land and associated assets and economic activity, the displacement of millions of people, and significant coastal habitat degradation. However, adaptation can greatly reduce these impacts and promote prosperous and desirable coasts. Adaptation measures can be characterized as (1) protect, (2) accommodate, or (3) retreat approaches. The provision of information measures such as warnings is improving significantly, while novel methods such as ecosystem-based approaches are attracting interest. Adaptation to sea-level rise should be viewed as a process that requires an integrated coastal management philosophy to be consistent with wider coastal activities and other stresses. Hence, in addition to technical skills, adaptation requires an appropriate institutional capacity. The success or failure of measures of adaptation, especially protection, is contested and this influences our view of sea-level rise as a problem. Adaptation can be best analyzed in the context of understanding the coastal system that includes the effects of all drivers, including sea-level rise, their interactions, and feedbacks: these types of analyses are only just beginning. Some proactive adaptation plans are already being formulated, such as around London and in the Netherlands. Coastal cities will be a major focus for adaptation efforts due to their concentrations of people and assets. However, there are important challenges for adaptation in developing countries, most especially in deltaic areas and small islands

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Contributors

Author: R.J. Nicholls

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