Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola

Takahashi, S., Metcalf, C.J.E., Ferrari, M.J., Moss, W J., Truelove, S.A., Tatem, A.J., Grenfell, B.T. and Lessler, J. (2015) Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola. Science, 347 (6227), 1240-1242. (doi:10.1126/science.aaa3438).

Abstract

The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has caused substantial morbidity and mortality. The outbreak has also disrupted health care services, including childhood vaccinations, creating a second public health crisis. We project that after 6 to 18 months of disruptions, a large connected cluster of children unvaccinated for measles will accumulate across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This pool of susceptibility increases the expected size of a regional measles outbreak from 127,000 to 227,000 cases after 18 months, resulting in 2000 to 16,000 additional deaths (comparable to the numbers of Ebola deaths reported thus far). There is a clear path to avoiding outbreaks of childhood vaccine-preventable diseases once the threat of Ebola begins to recede: an aggressive regional vaccination campaign aimed at age groups left unprotected because of health care disruptions

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Contributors

Author: A.J. Tatem

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