Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

Schröter, D, Cramer, W, Leemans, R, Prentice, I. C, Araújo, M. B., Arnell, N.W, Bondeau, A, Bugmann, H, Carter, T. R., Gracia, C. A., de la Vega-Leinert, A. C., Erhard, M., Ewert, F., Glendining, M., House, J. I., Kankaanpää, S., Klein, R. J.T., Lavorel, S., Lindner, Ma., Metzger, M. J., Meyer, J., Mitchell, T. D., Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M., Sabaté, S., Sitch, S., Smith, B., Smith, J., Smith, P., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., Thuiller, W., Tuck, G., Zaehle, S. and Zierl, B. (2005) Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe Science, 310, (5752), pp. 1333-1337. (doi:10.1126/science.1115233).


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Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.

Item Type: Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi:10.1126/science.1115233
ISSNs: 0036-8075 (print)
Keywords: ecosystem service supply, climate change, land-use change

ePrint ID: 37704
Date :
Date Event
26 May 2005Submitted
25 November 2005Published
Date Deposited: 25 May 2006
Last Modified: 16 Apr 2017 22:02
Further Information:Google Scholar

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