Your SlideShare is downloading. ×

The Rhythms and Components of ‘Peak Energy’ Demand

545

Published on

Ben Anderson – University of Southampton (@dataknut) …

Ben Anderson – University of Southampton (@dataknut)
Jacopo Torriti – University of Reading
Richard Hanna – University of Reading
Paper presented at BEHAVE 2014, Said Business School, Oxford, 3rd September 2014.

Published in: Data & Analytics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
545
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. The Rhythms and Components of ‘Peak Energy’ Demand Ben Anderson – University of Southampton (@dataknut) Jacopo Torriti – University of Reading Richard Hanna – University of Reading www.demand.ac.uk BEHAVE Conference 2014 3rd September 2014
  • 2. What’s the problem? • Domestic demand for electricity is particularly ‘peaky’… • Infrastructure problems • Network ‘import’ overload on weekday evenings; • Network ‘export’ overload at mid-day on weekdays due to under-used PV generation; • Inefficient use of resources (night-time trough) • Carbon problems: • Peak load can demand ‘dirty’ generation UK Housing Energy Fact File Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied homes, England 2010-11 Gas consumption The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling to predict nhouseholds’ e ergy consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation. Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low gas use. There are, it seems, many different ways to be a high or low gas user. The behaviours in question can be clustered under three broad headings: • physical properties of the home – the particular physical environment Gas use varies enormously from household to household, and the variation has more to do with behaviour than how dwellings are built. 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Heating Water heating Electric showers Washing/drying Cooking Lighting Cold appliances ICT Audiovisual Other Unknown Watts Filling the trough Peak load • Cost problems: • Peak generation is higher priced energy
  • 3. What to do? Two inter-linked approaches to dealing with ‘Peak’: • Demand Reduction • Just reducing it per se • Demand Response • Shifting it somewhere else in time (or space and time) This raises the crucial questions: • What do people do during peaks? • How has this evolved? • What can shift and where can it shift to? UK Housing Energy Fact File Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied homes, England 2010-11 Gas consumption The amount of gas consumed in the UK varies dramatically between households. The top 10% of households consume at least four times as much gas as the bottom 10%.60 Modelling to predict nhouseholds’ e ergy consumption – based on the property, household income and tenure – has so far been able to explain less than 40% of this variation. Households with especially high or low consumption do not have particular behaviours that make them easy to identify. Instead they tend to have a cluster of very ordinary behaviours that happen to culminate in high or low gas use. There are, it seems, many different ways to be a high or low gas user. The behaviours in question can be clustered under three broad headings: • physical properties of the home – the particular physical environment Gas use varies enormously from household to household, and the variation has more to do with behaviour than how dwellings are built. 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Heating Water heating Electric showers Washing/drying Cooking Lighting Cold appliances ICT Audiovisual Other Unknown Watts Filling the trough Peak load
  • 4. But there’s another problem… UK Housing Energy Fact File • This is an appliance level view • It tells us very little about what people do in peaks (and troughs) • And nothing about change over time • But time-use diary data might… Graph 7a: HES average 24-hour electricity use profile for owner-occupied homes, England 2010-11 Gas consumption Gas use varies enormously from 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Heating Water heating Electric showers Washing/drying Cooking Lighting Cold appliances ICT Audiovisual Other Unknown Watts
  • 5. So what constitutes peak? ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK, weekdays) % of persons reporting
  • 6. So what constitutes peak? ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK, weekdays) % of persons reporting
  • 7. The ‘average day’ is not that helpful Monday Friday ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK) % people reporting category – half hour summaries
  • 8. Whose ‘peak’: gendered practices Men Women ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK, all days) % people reporting category – half hour summaries
  • 9. Overall The ‘evolution’ of laundry 1975 - 2005 Multinational Time Use Study 1975-2005 (UK sample) – half hour summaries % of laundry episodes -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 1.00% 0.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 0.00% 0.20% 4:00 5:30 7:00 8:30 10:00 11:30 13:00 14:30 16:00 17:30 19:00 20:30 22:00 23:30 1:00 2:30 Saturday Friday Thursday Wednesday Tuesday Monday Sunday 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 1974 Monday 2005 Monday 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 1974 Sunday 2005 Sunday % point change
  • 10. Whose ‘peak’: age/cohort variation 16-64 : weekdays 65+ : weekdays ONS 2005 Time Use Survey Data (UK, week days) % people reporting category – half hour summaries
  • 11. Synchronisation and peaks… • Occurs when practices are to some extent happening together over the same time periods, across multiple spaces. • Synchronisation matters because it generates peaks in energy demand and implies potential to manage social practices. Synchronisation high Synchronisation low Many people doing the same energy-intensive activity at the same time e.g. cooking Many people doing different energy-intensive activities at the same time Many people doing the same lower energy activity at the same time e.g. sleeping Many people doing different lower energy activities at the same time Energy demand higher Energy demand lower
  • 12. Synchronisation index: relative synchronisation of men and women • ‘Trajectory’ 2011 time use data (n = 500) • Based on Shannon entropy index • Indicator of people ‘doing the same thing’ • Chapela (2013) dx.doi.org/10.13085/eIJTU R.10.1.9-37
  • 13. Summary • Energy ‘demands’ are emergent from co-evolving infrastructures and what people do (social practices) • There are a range of factors that affect how these demands emerge and how they are synchronised to produce ‘peaks’ • We need more than ‘average days’ and ‘appliance profiles’ to understand these quantitatively • Non-energy energy policy • E.g. labour market participation influences the time & timing of demand • Next steps: • Which kinds of people are engaged in similar social practices? • Which sequences of practices are implicated in peak demand?
  • 14. Thank you Ben Anderson b.anderson@soton.ac.uk Jacopo Torriti j.torriti@reading.ac.uk Richard Hanna r.f.hanna@reading.ac.uk www.demand.ac.uk

×