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Using risk model judgements to better understand perceptions of synergistic risks

Using risk model judgements to better understand perceptions of synergistic risks
Using risk model judgements to better understand perceptions of synergistic risks
Numerous scientific studies show that risk factors can interact to synergistically increase the likelihood of certain adverse and life-threatening outcomes. Yet, the extent to which individuals know that specific risk factor combinations present ‘synergistic risks’ is unclear and little is known about the determinants of such knowledge. This is largely because epistemological progress concerning this topic has been frustrated by a reliance on metrics that have latterly been judged to be of questionable validity. To address this issue, this paper presents two studies that assess an alternative approach (i.e., risk model judgements) which requires respondents to judge the risk for a factor combination relative to, rather than in isolation from, the risk attributable to each constituent factor. Results from both studies indicate that risk model judgements overcome the drawbacks of traditional metrics. More importantly, the results provide epistemological insights into what can determine whether an individual understands that a factor combination presents a synergistic risk; these determinants include experiential and intuitive insights into the effects of combining specific risk factors, domain-specific judgemental experience and exposure to effective learning opportunities. These findings can be utilized in interventions aimed at helping individuals to make better decisions concerning multiple risk factors
health, judgement, risk perception, synergistic risk
0007-1269
581-603
Dawson, Ian G.J
dff1b440-6c83-4354-92b6-04809460b01a
Johnson, J.E.V.
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
Luke, M.A.
118c229c-0088-4f4b-b827-6435ba68710d
Dawson, Ian G.J
dff1b440-6c83-4354-92b6-04809460b01a
Johnson, J.E.V.
6d9f1a51-38a8-4011-a792-bfc82040fac4
Luke, M.A.
118c229c-0088-4f4b-b827-6435ba68710d

Dawson, Ian G.J, Johnson, J.E.V. and Luke, M.A. (2014) Using risk model judgements to better understand perceptions of synergistic risks. British Journal of Psychology, 105 (4), 581-603. (doi:10.1111/bjop.12059). (PMID:24588694)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Numerous scientific studies show that risk factors can interact to synergistically increase the likelihood of certain adverse and life-threatening outcomes. Yet, the extent to which individuals know that specific risk factor combinations present ‘synergistic risks’ is unclear and little is known about the determinants of such knowledge. This is largely because epistemological progress concerning this topic has been frustrated by a reliance on metrics that have latterly been judged to be of questionable validity. To address this issue, this paper presents two studies that assess an alternative approach (i.e., risk model judgements) which requires respondents to judge the risk for a factor combination relative to, rather than in isolation from, the risk attributable to each constituent factor. Results from both studies indicate that risk model judgements overcome the drawbacks of traditional metrics. More importantly, the results provide epistemological insights into what can determine whether an individual understands that a factor combination presents a synergistic risk; these determinants include experiential and intuitive insights into the effects of combining specific risk factors, domain-specific judgemental experience and exposure to effective learning opportunities. These findings can be utilized in interventions aimed at helping individuals to make better decisions concerning multiple risk factors

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 1 November 2013
Published date: 13 January 2014
Keywords: health, judgement, risk perception, synergistic risk
Organisations: Centre of Excellence in Decision, Analytics & Risk Research

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 377525
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/377525
ISSN: 0007-1269
PURE UUID: b4ca7044-c81d-4012-8aa3-2629509db2d3
ORCID for Ian G.J Dawson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-0555-9682

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 12 Jun 2015 07:54
Last modified: 15 Aug 2019 00:37

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