A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems
A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems
Recent CMIP5 models predict large losses of summer Arctic sea ice, with only mitigation scenarios showing sustainable summer ice. Sea ice is inherently part of the climate system, and heat fluxes affecting sea ice can be small residuals of much larger air–sea fluxes. We discuss analysis of energy budgets in the Met Office climate models which point to the importance of early summer processes (such as clouds and meltponds) in determining both the seasonal cycle and the trend in ice decline. We give examples from Met Office modelling systems to illustrate how the seamless use of models for forecasting on time scales from short range to decadal might help to unlock the drivers of high latitude biases in climate models.
20140161
Hewitt, H.T.
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Ridley, J.K.
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Keen, A.B.
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West, A.E.
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Peterson, K.A.
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Rae, J.G.L.
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Milton, S.F.
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Bacon, S.
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July 2015
Hewitt, H.T.
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Ridley, J.K.
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Keen, A.B.
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West, A.E.
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Peterson, K.A.
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Rae, J.G.L.
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Milton, S.F.
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Bacon, S.
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Hewitt, H.T., Ridley, J.K., Keen, A.B., West, A.E., Peterson, K.A., Rae, J.G.L., Milton, S.F. and Bacon, S.
(2015)
A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373 (2045), .
(doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0161).
Abstract
Recent CMIP5 models predict large losses of summer Arctic sea ice, with only mitigation scenarios showing sustainable summer ice. Sea ice is inherently part of the climate system, and heat fluxes affecting sea ice can be small residuals of much larger air–sea fluxes. We discuss analysis of energy budgets in the Met Office climate models which point to the importance of early summer processes (such as clouds and meltponds) in determining both the seasonal cycle and the trend in ice decline. We give examples from Met Office modelling systems to illustrate how the seamless use of models for forecasting on time scales from short range to decadal might help to unlock the drivers of high latitude biases in climate models.
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Published date: July 2015
Organisations:
Marine Physics and Ocean Climate
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Local EPrints ID: 377976
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/377976
ISSN: 1364-503X
PURE UUID: c039a996-9ff5-4333-9999-c7d02b92d754
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Date deposited: 11 Jun 2015 14:51
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 20:13
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Contributors
Author:
H.T. Hewitt
Author:
J.K. Ridley
Author:
A.B. Keen
Author:
A.E. West
Author:
K.A. Peterson
Author:
J.G.L. Rae
Author:
S.F. Milton
Author:
S. Bacon
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