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Assessing the impact of seasonal population fluctuation on regional flood risk management

Assessing the impact of seasonal population fluctuation on regional flood risk management
Assessing the impact of seasonal population fluctuation on regional flood risk management
Human populations are not static or uniformly distributed across space and time. This consideration has a notable impact on natural hazard analyses which seek to determine population exposure and risk. This paper focuses on the coupling of population and environmental models to address the effect of seasonally varying populations on exposure to flood risk. A spatiotemporal population modelling tool, SurfaceBuilder247, has been combined with LISFLOOD-FP flood inundation model outputs for a study area centred on the coastal resort town of St Austell, Cornwall, United Kingdom (UK). Results indicate strong seasonal cycles in populations and their exposure to flood hazard which are not accounted for in traditional population datasets and flood hazard assessments. Therefore, this paper identifies and demonstrates considerable enhancements to the current handling of spatiotemporal population variation within hazard exposure assessment and disaster risk management.
flood risk, LISFLOOD-FP, seasonality, spatiotemporal population modelling, SurfaceBuilder247, St Austell
2220-9964
1118-1141
Smith, Alan D.
63ec33c7-fa1d-41ae-a0e1-5a96b7140664
Newing, Andy
ac2b2cfd-a2e9-45e8-8a1c-19521163aae6
Quinn, Niall
7625f7b2-58ee-47c7-beea-23ff56de6c6c
Martin, David
e5c52473-e9f0-4f09-b64c-fa32194b162f
Cockings, Samantha
53df26c2-454e-4e90-b45a-48eb8585e800
Neal, Jeffrey C.
848216c6-dd4b-4400-a86b-0c5883543ffa
Smith, Alan D.
63ec33c7-fa1d-41ae-a0e1-5a96b7140664
Newing, Andy
ac2b2cfd-a2e9-45e8-8a1c-19521163aae6
Quinn, Niall
7625f7b2-58ee-47c7-beea-23ff56de6c6c
Martin, David
e5c52473-e9f0-4f09-b64c-fa32194b162f
Cockings, Samantha
53df26c2-454e-4e90-b45a-48eb8585e800
Neal, Jeffrey C.
848216c6-dd4b-4400-a86b-0c5883543ffa

Smith, Alan D., Newing, Andy, Quinn, Niall, Martin, David, Cockings, Samantha and Neal, Jeffrey C. (2015) Assessing the impact of seasonal population fluctuation on regional flood risk management. [in special issue: Geoinformation for Disaster Risk Management] International Journal of Geo-Information, 4 (3), 1118-1141. (doi:10.3390/ijgi4031118).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Human populations are not static or uniformly distributed across space and time. This consideration has a notable impact on natural hazard analyses which seek to determine population exposure and risk. This paper focuses on the coupling of population and environmental models to address the effect of seasonally varying populations on exposure to flood risk. A spatiotemporal population modelling tool, SurfaceBuilder247, has been combined with LISFLOOD-FP flood inundation model outputs for a study area centred on the coastal resort town of St Austell, Cornwall, United Kingdom (UK). Results indicate strong seasonal cycles in populations and their exposure to flood hazard which are not accounted for in traditional population datasets and flood hazard assessments. Therefore, this paper identifies and demonstrates considerable enhancements to the current handling of spatiotemporal population variation within hazard exposure assessment and disaster risk management.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 2 July 2015
e-pub ahead of print date: 9 July 2015
Published date: 9 July 2015
Keywords: flood risk, LISFLOOD-FP, seasonality, spatiotemporal population modelling, SurfaceBuilder247, St Austell
Organisations: Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 379553
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/379553
ISSN: 2220-9964
PURE UUID: 0b8d1453-d397-40d2-826e-bfaa14a9c704
ORCID for David Martin: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-0397-0769

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Date deposited: 05 Aug 2015 14:29
Last modified: 07 Jul 2018 00:35

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Contributors

Author: Alan D. Smith
Author: Andy Newing
Author: Niall Quinn
Author: David Martin ORCID iD
Author: Jeffrey C. Neal

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