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Probabilistic population forecasts for informed decision making. Letter to the Editor.

Probabilistic population forecasts for informed decision making. Letter to the Editor.
Probabilistic population forecasts for informed decision making. Letter to the Editor.
Demographic forecasts are inherently uncertain. Nevertheless, an appropriate description of this uncertainty is a key underpinning of informed decision making. In recent decades various methods have been developed to describe the uncertainty of future populations and their structures, but the uptake of such tools amongst the practitioners of official population statistics has been lagging behind. In this letter we revisit the arguments for the practical uses of uncertainty assessments in official population forecasts, and address their implications for decision making. We discuss essential challenges, both for the forecasters and forecast users, and make recommendations for the official statistics community.
0282-423X
537-544
Bijak, Jakub
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Alberts, Isabel
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Alho, Juha
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Bryant, John
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Buettner, Thomas
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Falkingham, Jane C.
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Forster, Jonathan J.
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Gerland, Patrick
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Keilman, Nico
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King, Thomas
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O'Hagan, Anthony
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Onorante, Luca
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Owens, Darragh
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Raftery, Adrian E.
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Ševčíková, Hana
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Smith, Peter W.F.
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Bijak, Jakub
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Alberts, Isabel
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Alho, Juha
324a87a0-1949-411c-bc8f-f2442ba7052d
Bryant, John
d18a9c25-73bf-4172-b987-3378da9ba775
Buettner, Thomas
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Falkingham, Jane C.
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Forster, Jonathan J.
e3c534ad-fa69-42f5-b67b-11617bc84879
Gerland, Patrick
5f8b0b5c-115d-44c2-9fd8-d633ceca8e32
Keilman, Nico
d7bd835e-86dd-4a8a-94cd-9c3ec788b837
King, Thomas
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O'Hagan, Anthony
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Onorante, Luca
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Owens, Darragh
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Raftery, Adrian E.
d31f0168-3c63-4a4a-b6a8-019e48246376
Ševčíková, Hana
80c6a155-9875-4a63-9c77-12a198a7b959
Smith, Peter W.F.
961a01a3-bf4c-43ca-9599-5be4fd5d3940

Bijak, Jakub, Alberts, Isabel and Alho, Juha et al. (2015) Probabilistic population forecasts for informed decision making. Letter to the Editor. Journal of Official Statistics, 31 (4), 537-544. (doi:10.1515/JOS-2015-0033).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Demographic forecasts are inherently uncertain. Nevertheless, an appropriate description of this uncertainty is a key underpinning of informed decision making. In recent decades various methods have been developed to describe the uncertainty of future populations and their structures, but the uptake of such tools amongst the practitioners of official population statistics has been lagging behind. In this letter we revisit the arguments for the practical uses of uncertainty assessments in official population forecasts, and address their implications for decision making. We discuss essential challenges, both for the forecasters and forecast users, and make recommendations for the official statistics community.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 28 May 2015
Published date: 16 December 2015
Additional Information: Open Access
Organisations: Social Statistics & Demography, Statistics, Statistical Sciences Research Institute

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 379879
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/379879
ISSN: 0282-423X
PURE UUID: 4151f6d0-c4fd-4ae0-815e-0800a852d448
ORCID for Jakub Bijak: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2563-5040
ORCID for Jane C. Falkingham: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7135-5875
ORCID for Jonathan J. Forster: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7867-3411
ORCID for Peter W.F. Smith: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-4423-5410

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 24 Aug 2015 12:15
Last modified: 19 Jul 2019 01:19

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