Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models, and phylogeography

Gavin, D., Fitzpatrick, M., Gugger, P., Heath, K., Rodríguez-Sánchez, F., Dobrowski, S., Hampe, A., Hu, F., Ashcroft, M., Bartlein, P., Blois, J., Carstens, B., Davis, E., de Lafontaine, G., Edwards, M. and al, et (2014) Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models, and phylogeography. New Phytologist, 204 (1), 37-54. (doi:10.1111/nph.12929).

Abstract

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought
to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the
Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of
evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models
and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories
of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths,
limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate
their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these
disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir
illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species
histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can
capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of
species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their
conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular
geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

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Contributors

Author: M. Edwards

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