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Stock market dispersion, the business cycle and expected factor returns

Stock market dispersion, the business cycle and expected factor returns
Stock market dispersion, the business cycle and expected factor returns
We provide evidence using data from the G7 countries suggesting that return dispersion may serve as an economic state variable in that it reliably predicts time-variation in economic activity, market returns, the value and momentum premia and market volatility. A relatively high return dispersion predicts a deterioration in business conditions, a higher value premium, a smaller momentum premium and lower market returns. Dispersion based market and factor timing strategies outperform out-of-sample buy and hold strategies. The evidence are robust to alternative specifications of return dispersion and are not driven by US data. Return dispersion conveys incremental information relative to idiosyncratic risk
stock market return dispersion, business cycle, market and factor returns
0378-4266
265-279
Angelidis, Timotheos
a4cc0772-c876-4d51-ae6c-426fa54ab918
Sakkas, Athanasios
5a69d77a-fcea-4e07-bc18-5a8934a4899b
Tessaromatis, Nikolaos
151e1ba8-07cb-4d71-ad33-8dc320df6183
Angelidis, Timotheos
a4cc0772-c876-4d51-ae6c-426fa54ab918
Sakkas, Athanasios
5a69d77a-fcea-4e07-bc18-5a8934a4899b
Tessaromatis, Nikolaos
151e1ba8-07cb-4d71-ad33-8dc320df6183

Angelidis, Timotheos, Sakkas, Athanasios and Tessaromatis, Nikolaos (2015) Stock market dispersion, the business cycle and expected factor returns. Journal of Banking & Finance, 59, 265-279. (doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.04.025).

Record type: Article

Abstract

We provide evidence using data from the G7 countries suggesting that return dispersion may serve as an economic state variable in that it reliably predicts time-variation in economic activity, market returns, the value and momentum premia and market volatility. A relatively high return dispersion predicts a deterioration in business conditions, a higher value premium, a smaller momentum premium and lower market returns. Dispersion based market and factor timing strategies outperform out-of-sample buy and hold strategies. The evidence are robust to alternative specifications of return dispersion and are not driven by US data. Return dispersion conveys incremental information relative to idiosyncratic risk

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Accepted/In Press date: 18 April 2015
e-pub ahead of print date: 16 June 2015
Published date: September 2015
Keywords: stock market return dispersion, business cycle, market and factor returns
Organisations: Centre of Excellence for International Banking, Finance & Accounting

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 381012
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/381012
ISSN: 0378-4266
PURE UUID: fb2fc5e1-1ac9-4e75-ac98-efd5c40355d4
ORCID for Athanasios Sakkas: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5348-3382

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 22 Sep 2015 12:22
Last modified: 15 Aug 2019 05:36

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Contributors

Author: Timotheos Angelidis
Author: Nikolaos Tessaromatis

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