Uncertainty assessment: application to the shoreline
Uncertainty assessment: application to the shoreline
It is impossible to know beforehand the planforms of a stretch of beach without being first aware of the maritime climate affecting it. This article describes a procedure for objectively calculating the uncertainty associated with the prediction of the evolution of a stretch of beach in terms of probability. On the basis of oceanographic data records as well as empirical orthogonal functions (EOF), we propose a procedure for the simulation of possible sequences of storm events. Such sequences were then entered as input for a morphodynamic model with a view to the subsequent generation of possible planforms. EOF methodology was then used to estimate the probability of each of the planforms thus generated. The case study presented here is that of the evolution of an initially straight sand beach where a rectangular tapered fill had been constructed. The beach is located upshore of a groin perpendicular to the coastline, and had blocked all longshore sediment transport. For this analysis we used a one-line model with time-dependent boundary conditions and a non-homogeneous diffusion coefficient
one-line, empirical orthogonal functions, monte-carlo method, storm-event sequences
96-104
Payo, A.
21ef7385-622f-4973-9a93-10dd38ee95d9
Baquerizo, A.
2ad819e9-1b08-4a73-92db-edec3bd7039b
Losada, M.
1f6b16f1-2949-4871-8563-a0f18d4b7d91
2008
Payo, A.
21ef7385-622f-4973-9a93-10dd38ee95d9
Baquerizo, A.
2ad819e9-1b08-4a73-92db-edec3bd7039b
Losada, M.
1f6b16f1-2949-4871-8563-a0f18d4b7d91
Payo, A., Baquerizo, A. and Losada, M.
(2008)
Uncertainty assessment: application to the shoreline.
Journal of Hydraulic Research, 46, supplement 1, .
(doi:10.1080/00221686.2008.9521944).
Abstract
It is impossible to know beforehand the planforms of a stretch of beach without being first aware of the maritime climate affecting it. This article describes a procedure for objectively calculating the uncertainty associated with the prediction of the evolution of a stretch of beach in terms of probability. On the basis of oceanographic data records as well as empirical orthogonal functions (EOF), we propose a procedure for the simulation of possible sequences of storm events. Such sequences were then entered as input for a morphodynamic model with a view to the subsequent generation of possible planforms. EOF methodology was then used to estimate the probability of each of the planforms thus generated. The case study presented here is that of the evolution of an initially straight sand beach where a rectangular tapered fill had been constructed. The beach is located upshore of a groin perpendicular to the coastline, and had blocked all longshore sediment transport. For this analysis we used a one-line model with time-dependent boundary conditions and a non-homogeneous diffusion coefficient
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Published date: 2008
Keywords:
one-line, empirical orthogonal functions, monte-carlo method, storm-event sequences
Organisations:
Energy & Climate Change Group
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Local EPrints ID: 381821
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/381821
ISSN: 0022-1686
PURE UUID: 38af6c3f-ce5a-461c-bae5-17b73cf8d627
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Date deposited: 22 Oct 2015 07:51
Last modified: 07 Jan 2022 21:42
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Author:
A. Payo
Author:
A. Baquerizo
Author:
M. Losada
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