The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Uncertainty assessment: application to the shoreline

Uncertainty assessment: application to the shoreline
Uncertainty assessment: application to the shoreline
It is impossible to know beforehand the planforms of a stretch of beach without being first aware of the maritime climate affecting it. This article describes a procedure for objectively calculating the uncertainty associated with the prediction of the evolution of a stretch of beach in terms of probability. On the basis of oceanographic data records as well as empirical orthogonal functions (EOF), we propose a procedure for the simulation of possible sequences of storm events. Such sequences were then entered as input for a morphodynamic model with a view to the subsequent generation of possible planforms. EOF methodology was then used to estimate the probability of each of the planforms thus generated. The case study presented here is that of the evolution of an initially straight sand beach where a rectangular tapered fill had been constructed. The beach is located upshore of a groin perpendicular to the coastline, and had blocked all longshore sediment transport. For this analysis we used a one-line model with time-dependent boundary conditions and a non-homogeneous diffusion coefficient
one-line, empirical orthogonal functions, monte-carlo method, storm-event sequences
0022-1686
96-104
Payo, A.
21ef7385-622f-4973-9a93-10dd38ee95d9
Baquerizo, A.
2ad819e9-1b08-4a73-92db-edec3bd7039b
Losada, M.
1f6b16f1-2949-4871-8563-a0f18d4b7d91
Payo, A.
21ef7385-622f-4973-9a93-10dd38ee95d9
Baquerizo, A.
2ad819e9-1b08-4a73-92db-edec3bd7039b
Losada, M.
1f6b16f1-2949-4871-8563-a0f18d4b7d91

Payo, A., Baquerizo, A. and Losada, M. (2008) Uncertainty assessment: application to the shoreline. Journal of Hydraulic Research, 46, supplement 1, 96-104. (doi:10.1080/00221686.2008.9521944).

Record type: Article

Abstract

It is impossible to know beforehand the planforms of a stretch of beach without being first aware of the maritime climate affecting it. This article describes a procedure for objectively calculating the uncertainty associated with the prediction of the evolution of a stretch of beach in terms of probability. On the basis of oceanographic data records as well as empirical orthogonal functions (EOF), we propose a procedure for the simulation of possible sequences of storm events. Such sequences were then entered as input for a morphodynamic model with a view to the subsequent generation of possible planforms. EOF methodology was then used to estimate the probability of each of the planforms thus generated. The case study presented here is that of the evolution of an initially straight sand beach where a rectangular tapered fill had been constructed. The beach is located upshore of a groin perpendicular to the coastline, and had blocked all longshore sediment transport. For this analysis we used a one-line model with time-dependent boundary conditions and a non-homogeneous diffusion coefficient

Text
00221686%2E2008%2E9521944.pdf - Version of Record
Restricted to Repository staff only

More information

Published date: 2008
Keywords: one-line, empirical orthogonal functions, monte-carlo method, storm-event sequences
Organisations: Energy & Climate Change Group

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 381821
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/381821
ISSN: 0022-1686
PURE UUID: 38af6c3f-ce5a-461c-bae5-17b73cf8d627

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 22 Oct 2015 07:51
Last modified: 18 Nov 2019 20:18

Export record

Altmetrics

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×