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From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2015 British general election

From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2015 British general election
From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2015 British general election
This paper develops a three-stage method to forecast parliamentary election results from vote preferences in British opinion polls: (1) adjusting and aggregating vote-intentions from different polling organizations; (2) forecasting how public support for parties will change in the period before election day; and (3) translating, through simulations, the forecast of election day vote shares into seat totals while incorporating constituency-level information, including local vote-intention polls. Overall, this approach seeks to combine relevant national, regional and local information, and uncertainty about that information, to better reflect the fragmentation and diversity of political contexts found in the new era of five/six-party British politics
0261-3794
244-249
Ford, Robert
f2f320f9-15df-4a16-ab41-505f831a5ed1
Jennings, Will
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Pickup, Mark
9f23d950-f879-448e-b7a6-4b7f55ebe999
Wlezien, Christopher
e5c172ce-90fc-4bb3-989f-f11e4acb7e53
Ford, Robert
f2f320f9-15df-4a16-ab41-505f831a5ed1
Jennings, Will
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Pickup, Mark
9f23d950-f879-448e-b7a6-4b7f55ebe999
Wlezien, Christopher
e5c172ce-90fc-4bb3-989f-f11e4acb7e53

Ford, Robert, Jennings, Will, Pickup, Mark and Wlezien, Christopher (2016) From polls to votes to seats: forecasting the 2015 British general election. Electoral Studies, 41 (1), 244-249. (doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.013).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper develops a three-stage method to forecast parliamentary election results from vote preferences in British opinion polls: (1) adjusting and aggregating vote-intentions from different polling organizations; (2) forecasting how public support for parties will change in the period before election day; and (3) translating, through simulations, the forecast of election day vote shares into seat totals while incorporating constituency-level information, including local vote-intention polls. Overall, this approach seeks to combine relevant national, regional and local information, and uncertainty about that information, to better reflect the fragmentation and diversity of political contexts found in the new era of five/six-party British politics

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 27 September 2015
Published date: March 2016
Organisations: Politics & International Relations

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 381998
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/381998
ISSN: 0261-3794
PURE UUID: d022a794-9cca-4323-b772-f8768601acd1
ORCID for Will Jennings: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9007-8896

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 16 Oct 2015 15:21
Last modified: 09 Jan 2022 03:39

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Contributors

Author: Robert Ford
Author: Will Jennings ORCID iD
Author: Mark Pickup
Author: Christopher Wlezien

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