Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration
Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration
Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. In this article, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin-destination flows, resulting in a synthetic data base with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters
1007-1024
Wisniowski, Arkadiusz
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Forster, Jonathan J.
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Smith, Peter W.F.
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Bijak, Jakub
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Raymer, James
a74c7f31-e536-44b0-b526-44d78df22f45
1 October 2016
Wisniowski, Arkadiusz
343c44c6-7efe-4b2e-9bc7-4ebe0419dd56
Forster, Jonathan J.
e3c534ad-fa69-42f5-b67b-11617bc84879
Smith, Peter W.F.
961a01a3-bf4c-43ca-9599-5be4fd5d3940
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Raymer, James
a74c7f31-e536-44b0-b526-44d78df22f45
Wisniowski, Arkadiusz, Forster, Jonathan J., Smith, Peter W.F., Bijak, Jakub and Raymer, James
(2016)
Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 179 (4), .
(doi:10.1111/rssa.12177).
Abstract
Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. In this article, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin-destination flows, resulting in a synthetic data base with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters
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Accepted/In Press date: 3 October 2015
e-pub ahead of print date: 22 January 2016
Published date: 1 October 2016
Organisations:
Social Statistics & Demography, Statistics
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 383776
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/383776
ISSN: 0964-1998
PURE UUID: 395eea61-0183-4c4d-9111-b91cfcacf68b
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Date deposited: 20 Nov 2015 14:28
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:34
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Author:
Arkadiusz Wisniowski
Author:
Jonathan J. Forster
Author:
James Raymer
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