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Small area synthetic estimates of smoking prevalence during pregnancy in England

Small area synthetic estimates of smoking prevalence during pregnancy in England
Small area synthetic estimates of smoking prevalence during pregnancy in England
Background: Complete and accurate data on maternal smoking prevalence during pregnancy are not available at a local geographical scale in England. We employ a synthetic estimation approach to predict the expected prevalence of smoking during pregnancy and smoking at delivery by Primary Care Trust (PCT).

Methods: Multilevel logistic regression models were used with data from the 2010 Infant Feeding Survey and 2011 Census to predict the probability of mothers (a) smoking at any point during pregnancy and (b) smoking at delivery according to age, deprivation and the ethnic profile of the home area. These probabilities were applied to demographic information on mothers giving birth from 2010/11 Hospital Episode Statistics data to produce expected counts, and prevalence figures, of smokers by PCT, with Bayesian 95% credible intervals. The expected prevalence of smoking at delivery by PCT was compared with midwife-collected Smoking at the Time of Delivery (SATOD) data using a Bland-Altman plot.

Results: The expected prevalence of smoking during pregnancy by PCT ranged from 8.1% (95% CI 5.6-1.0) to 31.6% (27.5-34.8). The expected prevalence of smoking at delivery ranged from 2.5% (1.4-4.0) to 17.1% (13.7-20.4). Figures for expected smoking prevalence at delivery showed some agreement with SATOD, though SATOD data were general higher than the synthetic estimates (mean difference 2.99%).

Conclusions: It is possible to derive good estimates of expected smoking prevalence during pregnancy for small areas, potentially at much lower cost than conducting large surveys. Such data may be useful to help plan and commission smoking cessation services and monitor their effectiveness.
smoking, pregnancy, synthetic estimation
1-8
Szatkowski, L.
87ee7a46-55cc-4032-89e8-2d87d68420ee
Fahy, S.
699ce814-fd60-4690-bcf8-ac5cdecaa5c7
Coleman, T.
cd2a9629-a6a1-4cee-9b70-0dfe2b91b28c
Taylor, J.
a98e31be-d5c2-4442-a3e9-472af9399f52
Twigg, L.
6f34ac37-5ecd-4a60-9aa6-005428921ca2
Moon, G.
68cffc4d-72c1-41e9-b1fa-1570c5f3a0b4
Leonardi-Bee, J.
5cc5dcd0-7155-4ac7-992f-7d025a79af37
Szatkowski, L.
87ee7a46-55cc-4032-89e8-2d87d68420ee
Fahy, S.
699ce814-fd60-4690-bcf8-ac5cdecaa5c7
Coleman, T.
cd2a9629-a6a1-4cee-9b70-0dfe2b91b28c
Taylor, J.
a98e31be-d5c2-4442-a3e9-472af9399f52
Twigg, L.
6f34ac37-5ecd-4a60-9aa6-005428921ca2
Moon, G.
68cffc4d-72c1-41e9-b1fa-1570c5f3a0b4
Leonardi-Bee, J.
5cc5dcd0-7155-4ac7-992f-7d025a79af37

Szatkowski, L., Fahy, S., Coleman, T., Taylor, J., Twigg, L., Moon, G. and Leonardi-Bee, J. (2015) Small area synthetic estimates of smoking prevalence during pregnancy in England. Population Health Metrics, 13 (34), 1-8. (doi:10.1186/s12963-015-0067-8).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Background: Complete and accurate data on maternal smoking prevalence during pregnancy are not available at a local geographical scale in England. We employ a synthetic estimation approach to predict the expected prevalence of smoking during pregnancy and smoking at delivery by Primary Care Trust (PCT).

Methods: Multilevel logistic regression models were used with data from the 2010 Infant Feeding Survey and 2011 Census to predict the probability of mothers (a) smoking at any point during pregnancy and (b) smoking at delivery according to age, deprivation and the ethnic profile of the home area. These probabilities were applied to demographic information on mothers giving birth from 2010/11 Hospital Episode Statistics data to produce expected counts, and prevalence figures, of smokers by PCT, with Bayesian 95% credible intervals. The expected prevalence of smoking at delivery by PCT was compared with midwife-collected Smoking at the Time of Delivery (SATOD) data using a Bland-Altman plot.

Results: The expected prevalence of smoking during pregnancy by PCT ranged from 8.1% (95% CI 5.6-1.0) to 31.6% (27.5-34.8). The expected prevalence of smoking at delivery ranged from 2.5% (1.4-4.0) to 17.1% (13.7-20.4). Figures for expected smoking prevalence at delivery showed some agreement with SATOD, though SATOD data were general higher than the synthetic estimates (mean difference 2.99%).

Conclusions: It is possible to derive good estimates of expected smoking prevalence during pregnancy for small areas, potentially at much lower cost than conducting large surveys. Such data may be useful to help plan and commission smoking cessation services and monitor their effectiveness.

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Accepted/In Press date: 2 December 2015
Published date: 9 December 2015
Keywords: smoking, pregnancy, synthetic estimation
Organisations: Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 384430
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/384430
PURE UUID: 1c5d131d-2ab7-4bb4-b0fc-48cdb33f86d7
ORCID for G. Moon: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7256-8397

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Date deposited: 04 Jan 2016 12:07
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:27

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Contributors

Author: L. Szatkowski
Author: S. Fahy
Author: T. Coleman
Author: J. Taylor
Author: L. Twigg
Author: G. Moon ORCID iD
Author: J. Leonardi-Bee

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