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Potential for seasonal prediction of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26°N

Potential for seasonal prediction of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26°N
Potential for seasonal prediction of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26°N
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a critical role in the climate system and is responsible for much of the meridional heat transported by the ocean. In this paper, the potential of using AMOC observations from the 26 ? N RAPID array to predict North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is investigated for the first time. Using spatial correlations and a composite method, the AMOC anomaly is used as a precursor of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). The results show that the AMOC leads a dipolar SSTA with maximum correlations between 2 and 5 months. The physical mechanism explaining the link between AMOC and SSTA is described as a seesaw mechanism where a strong AMOC anomaly increases the amount of heat advected north of 26 ? N as well as the SSTA, and decreases the heat content and the SSTA south of this section. In order to further understand the origins of this SSTA dipole, the respective contributions of the heat advected by the AMOC versus the Ekman transport and air–sea fluxes have been assessed. We found that at a 5-month lag, the Ekman component mainly contributes to the southern part of the dipole and cumulative air–sea fluxes only explain a small fraction of the SSTA variability. Given that the southern part of the SSTA dipole encompasses the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes, our results therefore suggest the potential for AMOC observations from 26 ? N to be used to complement existing seasonal hurricane forecasts in the Atlantic.
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, RAPID array, Seasonal potential predictability, Sea surface temperature, Air–sea heat flux
0930-7575
3351-3370
Duchez, Aurélie
d73f2e60-bc41-4fb5-9686-6e12048a6f2d
Courtois, Peggy
016efb21-fb67-46e0-acae-a58b7223b6d1
Harris, Elizabeth
29d2058e-dd68-4f5e-995b-0748ff3ef10c
Josey, Simon
2252ab7f-5cd2-49fd-a951-aece44553d93
Kanzow, Torsten
b0cde526-e54c-44d6-b191-fd15d506ce06
Marsh, Robert
702c2e7e-ac19-4019-abd9-a8614ab27717
Smeed, David
79eece5a-c870-47f9-bba0-0a4ef0369490
Hirschi, Joël Jean-Marie
c8a45006-a6e3-4319-b5f5-648e8ef98906
Duchez, Aurélie
d73f2e60-bc41-4fb5-9686-6e12048a6f2d
Courtois, Peggy
016efb21-fb67-46e0-acae-a58b7223b6d1
Harris, Elizabeth
29d2058e-dd68-4f5e-995b-0748ff3ef10c
Josey, Simon
2252ab7f-5cd2-49fd-a951-aece44553d93
Kanzow, Torsten
b0cde526-e54c-44d6-b191-fd15d506ce06
Marsh, Robert
702c2e7e-ac19-4019-abd9-a8614ab27717
Smeed, David
79eece5a-c870-47f9-bba0-0a4ef0369490
Hirschi, Joël Jean-Marie
c8a45006-a6e3-4319-b5f5-648e8ef98906

Duchez, Aurélie, Courtois, Peggy, Harris, Elizabeth, Josey, Simon, Kanzow, Torsten, Marsh, Robert, Smeed, David and Hirschi, Joël Jean-Marie (2016) Potential for seasonal prediction of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26°N. Climate Dynamics, 46 (9), 3351-3370. (doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2918-1).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a critical role in the climate system and is responsible for much of the meridional heat transported by the ocean. In this paper, the potential of using AMOC observations from the 26 ? N RAPID array to predict North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is investigated for the first time. Using spatial correlations and a composite method, the AMOC anomaly is used as a precursor of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). The results show that the AMOC leads a dipolar SSTA with maximum correlations between 2 and 5 months. The physical mechanism explaining the link between AMOC and SSTA is described as a seesaw mechanism where a strong AMOC anomaly increases the amount of heat advected north of 26 ? N as well as the SSTA, and decreases the heat content and the SSTA south of this section. In order to further understand the origins of this SSTA dipole, the respective contributions of the heat advected by the AMOC versus the Ekman transport and air–sea fluxes have been assessed. We found that at a 5-month lag, the Ekman component mainly contributes to the southern part of the dipole and cumulative air–sea fluxes only explain a small fraction of the SSTA variability. Given that the southern part of the SSTA dipole encompasses the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes, our results therefore suggest the potential for AMOC observations from 26 ? N to be used to complement existing seasonal hurricane forecasts in the Atlantic.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: November 2015
e-pub ahead of print date: 14 December 2015
Published date: May 2016
Keywords: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, RAPID array, Seasonal potential predictability, Sea surface temperature, Air–sea heat flux
Organisations: Marine Systems Modelling, Physical Oceanography, Marine Physics and Ocean Climate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 384496
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/384496
ISSN: 0930-7575
PURE UUID: 475cd486-31e0-4de0-9915-1b8412959a2f

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Date deposited: 05 Jan 2016 13:23
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 21:59

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Contributors

Author: Aurélie Duchez
Author: Peggy Courtois
Author: Simon Josey
Author: Torsten Kanzow
Author: Robert Marsh
Author: David Smeed
Author: Joël Jean-Marie Hirschi

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