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Simulating mesoscale coastal evolution for decadal coastal management: a new framework integrating multiple, complementary modelling approaches

Simulating mesoscale coastal evolution for decadal coastal management: a new framework integrating multiple, complementary modelling approaches
Simulating mesoscale coastal evolution for decadal coastal management: a new framework integrating multiple, complementary modelling approaches
Coastal and shoreline management increasingly needs to consider morphological change occurring at decadal to centennial timescales, especially that related to climate change and sea-level rise. This requires the development of morphological models operating at a mesoscale, defined by time and length scales of the order 101 to 102 years and 101 to 102 km. So-called ‘reduced complexity’ models that represent critical processes at scales not much smaller than the primary scale of interest, and are regulated by capturing the critical feedbacks that govern landform behaviour, are proving effective as a means of exploring emergent coastal behaviour at a landscape scale. Such models tend to be computationally efficient and are thus easily applied within a probabilistic framework. At the same time, reductionist models, built upon a more detailed description of hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes, are capable of application at increasingly broad spatial and temporal scales. More qualitative modelling approaches are also emerging that can guide the development and deployment of quantitative models, and these can be supplemented by varied data-driven modelling approaches that can achieve new explanatory insights from observational datasets. Such disparate approaches have hitherto been pursued largely in isolation by mutually exclusive modelling communities. Brought together, they have the potential to facilitate a step change in our ability to simulate the evolution of coastal morphology at scales that are most relevant to managing erosion and flood risk. Here, we advocate and outline a new integrated modelling framework that deploys coupled mesoscale reduced complexity models, reductionist coastal area models, data-driven approaches, and qualitative conceptual models. Integration of these heterogeneous approaches gives rise to model compositions that can potentially resolve decadal- to centennial-scale behaviour of diverse coupled open coast, estuary and inner shelf settings. This vision is illustrated through an idealised composition of models for a ~ 70 km stretch of the Suffolk coast, eastern England. A key advantage of model linking is that it allows a wide range of real-world situations to be simulated from a small set of model components. However, this process involves more than just the development of software that allows for flexible model coupling. The compatibility of radically different modelling assumptions remains to be carefully assessed and testing as well as evaluating uncertainties of models in composition are areas that require further attention.
coastal morphology, hybrid modelling approach, morphodynamics, model coupling, shoreline management
0169-555X
68-80
van Maanen, Barend
47cb6ae2-9baf-4f37-a138-067d72966597
Nicholls, Robert J.
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French, Jon R.
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Barkwith, Andrew
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Bonaldo, Davide
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Burningham, Helene
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Murray, A. Brad
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Payo, Andres
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Sutherland, James
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Thornhill, Gillian
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Townend, Ian H.
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van der Wegen, Mick
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Walkden, Mike J.A.
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van Maanen, Barend
47cb6ae2-9baf-4f37-a138-067d72966597
Nicholls, Robert J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
French, Jon R.
c638a0bc-e68b-4280-bcc6-851e5f62c380
Barkwith, Andrew
8f0d065d-6c64-4fe0-990c-d05212b0779f
Bonaldo, Davide
ddc08b2e-44f7-478c-84ed-9259a2fd1107
Burningham, Helene
5e0116f4-1cb0-433b-8277-0417d3f550ec
Murray, A. Brad
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Payo, Andres
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Sutherland, James
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Thornhill, Gillian
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Townend, Ian H.
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van der Wegen, Mick
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Walkden, Mike J.A.
cdd79138-35ce-4961-a413-cf4a9e9bdccc

van Maanen, Barend, Nicholls, Robert J., French, Jon R., Barkwith, Andrew, Bonaldo, Davide, Burningham, Helene, Murray, A. Brad, Payo, Andres, Sutherland, James, Thornhill, Gillian, Townend, Ian H., van der Wegen, Mick and Walkden, Mike J.A. (2016) Simulating mesoscale coastal evolution for decadal coastal management: a new framework integrating multiple, complementary modelling approaches. [in special issue: Simulating Decadal Coastal Morphodynamics] Geomorphology, 256, 68-80. (doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.10.026).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Coastal and shoreline management increasingly needs to consider morphological change occurring at decadal to centennial timescales, especially that related to climate change and sea-level rise. This requires the development of morphological models operating at a mesoscale, defined by time and length scales of the order 101 to 102 years and 101 to 102 km. So-called ‘reduced complexity’ models that represent critical processes at scales not much smaller than the primary scale of interest, and are regulated by capturing the critical feedbacks that govern landform behaviour, are proving effective as a means of exploring emergent coastal behaviour at a landscape scale. Such models tend to be computationally efficient and are thus easily applied within a probabilistic framework. At the same time, reductionist models, built upon a more detailed description of hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes, are capable of application at increasingly broad spatial and temporal scales. More qualitative modelling approaches are also emerging that can guide the development and deployment of quantitative models, and these can be supplemented by varied data-driven modelling approaches that can achieve new explanatory insights from observational datasets. Such disparate approaches have hitherto been pursued largely in isolation by mutually exclusive modelling communities. Brought together, they have the potential to facilitate a step change in our ability to simulate the evolution of coastal morphology at scales that are most relevant to managing erosion and flood risk. Here, we advocate and outline a new integrated modelling framework that deploys coupled mesoscale reduced complexity models, reductionist coastal area models, data-driven approaches, and qualitative conceptual models. Integration of these heterogeneous approaches gives rise to model compositions that can potentially resolve decadal- to centennial-scale behaviour of diverse coupled open coast, estuary and inner shelf settings. This vision is illustrated through an idealised composition of models for a ~ 70 km stretch of the Suffolk coast, eastern England. A key advantage of model linking is that it allows a wide range of real-world situations to be simulated from a small set of model components. However, this process involves more than just the development of software that allows for flexible model coupling. The compatibility of radically different modelling assumptions remains to be carefully assessed and testing as well as evaluating uncertainties of models in composition are areas that require further attention.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 27 October 2015
e-pub ahead of print date: 9 November 2015
Published date: 1 March 2016
Keywords: coastal morphology, hybrid modelling approach, morphodynamics, model coupling, shoreline management
Organisations: Civil Maritime & Env. Eng & Sci Unit

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 384958
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/384958
ISSN: 0169-555X
PURE UUID: cd224c85-4ccc-47b9-8422-5b8fc5b0e5c9
ORCID for Robert J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

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Date deposited: 10 Dec 2015 17:07
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:18

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Contributors

Author: Barend van Maanen
Author: Jon R. French
Author: Andrew Barkwith
Author: Davide Bonaldo
Author: Helene Burningham
Author: A. Brad Murray
Author: Andres Payo
Author: James Sutherland
Author: Gillian Thornhill
Author: Ian H. Townend
Author: Mick van der Wegen
Author: Mike J.A. Walkden

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