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Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management
Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management
Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.
Ecosystem models, Marine policy and management, UK environmental assessment management and monitoring
291-302
Hyder, Kieran
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Rossberg, Axel G.
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Allen, J. Icarus
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Austen, Melanie C.
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Barciela, Rosa M.
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Bannister, Hayley J.
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Blackwell, Paul G.
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Blanchard, Julia L.
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Burrows, Michael T.
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Defriez, Emma
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Dorrington, Tarquin
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Edwards, Karen P.
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Garcia-Carreras, Bernardo
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Heath, Michael R.
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Hembury, Deborah J.
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Heymans, Johanna J.
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Holt, Jason
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Houle, Jennifer E.
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Jennings, Simon
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Mackinson, Steve
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Malcolm, Stephen J.
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McPike, Ruaraidh
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Mee, Laurence
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Mills, David K.
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Montgomery, Caron
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Pearson, Dean
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Pinnegar, John K.
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Pollicino, Marilena
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Popova, Ekaterina E.
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Rae, Louise
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Rogers, Stuart I.
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Speirs, Douglas
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Spence, Michael A.
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Thorpe, Robert
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Turner, R. Kerry
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van der Molen, Johan
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Yool, Andrew
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Paterson, David M.
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Hyder, Kieran
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Rossberg, Axel G.
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Allen, J. Icarus
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Austen, Melanie C.
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Barciela, Rosa M.
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Bannister, Hayley J.
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Blackwell, Paul G.
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Blanchard, Julia L.
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Burrows, Michael T.
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Defriez, Emma
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Dorrington, Tarquin
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Edwards, Karen P.
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Garcia-Carreras, Bernardo
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Heath, Michael R.
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Hembury, Deborah J.
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Heymans, Johanna J.
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Holt, Jason
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Houle, Jennifer E.
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Jennings, Simon
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Mackinson, Steve
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Malcolm, Stephen J.
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McPike, Ruaraidh
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Mee, Laurence
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Mills, David K.
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Montgomery, Caron
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Pearson, Dean
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Pinnegar, John K.
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Pollicino, Marilena
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Popova, Ekaterina E.
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Rae, Louise
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Rogers, Stuart I.
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Speirs, Douglas
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Spence, Michael A.
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Thorpe, Robert
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Turner, R. Kerry
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van der Molen, Johan
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Yool, Andrew
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Paterson, David M.
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Hyder, Kieran, Rossberg, Axel G., Allen, J. Icarus, Austen, Melanie C., Barciela, Rosa M., Bannister, Hayley J., Blackwell, Paul G., Blanchard, Julia L., Burrows, Michael T., Defriez, Emma, Dorrington, Tarquin, Edwards, Karen P., Garcia-Carreras, Bernardo, Heath, Michael R., Hembury, Deborah J., Heymans, Johanna J., Holt, Jason, Houle, Jennifer E., Jennings, Simon, Mackinson, Steve, Malcolm, Stephen J., McPike, Ruaraidh, Mee, Laurence, Mills, David K., Montgomery, Caron, Pearson, Dean, Pinnegar, John K., Pollicino, Marilena, Popova, Ekaterina E., Rae, Louise, Rogers, Stuart I., Speirs, Douglas, Spence, Michael A., Thorpe, Robert, Turner, R. Kerry, van der Molen, Johan, Yool, Andrew and Paterson, David M. (2015) Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management. Marine Policy, 61, 291-302. (doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2015.07.015).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

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More information

Published date: November 2015
Keywords: Ecosystem models, Marine policy and management, UK environmental assessment management and monitoring
Organisations: Marine Systems Modelling

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 385189
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/385189
PURE UUID: 27856814-81f0-4103-beee-7250f00c1cf3

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Date deposited: 17 Dec 2015 10:37
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 22:12

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Contributors

Author: Kieran Hyder
Author: Axel G. Rossberg
Author: J. Icarus Allen
Author: Melanie C. Austen
Author: Rosa M. Barciela
Author: Hayley J. Bannister
Author: Paul G. Blackwell
Author: Julia L. Blanchard
Author: Michael T. Burrows
Author: Emma Defriez
Author: Tarquin Dorrington
Author: Karen P. Edwards
Author: Bernardo Garcia-Carreras
Author: Michael R. Heath
Author: Deborah J. Hembury
Author: Johanna J. Heymans
Author: Jason Holt
Author: Jennifer E. Houle
Author: Simon Jennings
Author: Steve Mackinson
Author: Stephen J. Malcolm
Author: Ruaraidh McPike
Author: Laurence Mee
Author: David K. Mills
Author: Caron Montgomery
Author: Dean Pearson
Author: John K. Pinnegar
Author: Marilena Pollicino
Author: Ekaterina E. Popova
Author: Louise Rae
Author: Stuart I. Rogers
Author: Douglas Speirs
Author: Michael A. Spence
Author: Robert Thorpe
Author: R. Kerry Turner
Author: Johan van der Molen
Author: Andrew Yool
Author: David M. Paterson

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