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From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots
From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots
Ocean warming “hotspots” are regions characterised by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2-driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.
Climate change, ocean, marine hotspots, ecosystems, modelling, boundary currents
1354-1013
2038-2053
Popova, E.
3ea572bd-f37d-4777-894b-b0d86f735820
Yool, A.
882aeb0d-dda0-405e-844c-65b68cce5017
Byfield, V.
b360ba2c-2648-4f94-9b22-536423ef65c1
Cochrane, K.
4f222542-1fc9-41a5-9083-ac21947f2e3b
Coward, A.C.
53b78140-2e65-476a-b287-e8384a65224b
Salim, S.S.
ee2bd022-6b45-4459-bd51-91219b74d7e8
Gasalla, M.A.
c0a79f09-6bc2-4c8e-9e78-9b1a2b911723
Henson, S.A.
d6532e17-a65b-4d7b-9ee3-755ecb565c19
Hobday, A.J.
9a74db91-7841-4854-b309-5d9fc9b7009c
Pecl, G.
557472aa-f984-44d1-b183-8fb54680f4fd
Sauer, W.
e3990b74-e731-4b07-8f63-7dd2a3038261
Roberts, M.
8841b432-f080-4b49-a9f4-1a1fbaed1a81
Popova, E.
3ea572bd-f37d-4777-894b-b0d86f735820
Yool, A.
882aeb0d-dda0-405e-844c-65b68cce5017
Byfield, V.
b360ba2c-2648-4f94-9b22-536423ef65c1
Cochrane, K.
4f222542-1fc9-41a5-9083-ac21947f2e3b
Coward, A.C.
53b78140-2e65-476a-b287-e8384a65224b
Salim, S.S.
ee2bd022-6b45-4459-bd51-91219b74d7e8
Gasalla, M.A.
c0a79f09-6bc2-4c8e-9e78-9b1a2b911723
Henson, S.A.
d6532e17-a65b-4d7b-9ee3-755ecb565c19
Hobday, A.J.
9a74db91-7841-4854-b309-5d9fc9b7009c
Pecl, G.
557472aa-f984-44d1-b183-8fb54680f4fd
Sauer, W.
e3990b74-e731-4b07-8f63-7dd2a3038261
Roberts, M.
8841b432-f080-4b49-a9f4-1a1fbaed1a81

Popova, E., Yool, A., Byfield, V., Cochrane, K., Coward, A.C., Salim, S.S., Gasalla, M.A., Henson, S.A., Hobday, A.J., Pecl, G., Sauer, W. and Roberts, M. (2016) From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots. Global Change Biology, 22 (6), 2038-2053. (doi:10.1111/gcb.13247).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Ocean warming “hotspots” are regions characterised by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2-driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 16 December 2015
e-pub ahead of print date: 8 February 2016
Published date: June 2016
Keywords: Climate change, ocean, marine hotspots, ecosystems, modelling, boundary currents
Organisations: Marine Systems Modelling, Marine Biogeochemistry

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 385202
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/385202
ISSN: 1354-1013
PURE UUID: 5784bdcb-7ba3-47b5-b2f4-664610a054d4

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Date deposited: 04 Mar 2016 10:13
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 22:12

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Contributors

Author: E. Popova
Author: A. Yool
Author: V. Byfield
Author: K. Cochrane
Author: A.C. Coward
Author: S.S. Salim
Author: M.A. Gasalla
Author: S.A. Henson
Author: A.J. Hobday
Author: G. Pecl
Author: W. Sauer
Author: M. Roberts

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