Long-term variations in global sea level extremes
Long-term variations in global sea level extremes
Decadal to multidecadal variations in sea level extremes unrelated to mean sea level changes have been investigated using long tide gauge records distributed worldwide. A state space approach has been applied that provides robust solutions and uncertainties of the time evolving characteristics of extremes, allowing for data gaps and uneven sampling, both common features of historical sea level time series. Two different models have been formulated for the intensity and for the occurrence of extreme sea level events and have been applied independently to each tide gauge record. Our results reveal two key findings: first, the intensity and the frequency of occurrence of extreme sea levels unrelated to mean sea level vary coherently on decadal scales in most of the sites examined (63 out of 77) and, second, extreme sea level changes are regionally consistent, thus pointing toward a common large-scale forcing. This variability of extremes associated with climate drivers should be considered in the framework of climate change studies.
sea level, extremes, state space models
8115-8134
Marcos, Marta
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Calafat, Francisco M.
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Berihuete, Ángel
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Dangendorf, Sönke
ba1c5cbe-a385-41dc-8a46-da8cd36cf19d
December 2015
Marcos, Marta
e9449b6f-834c-4239-8bb7-b611a0062412
Calafat, Francisco M.
f97617bd-0238-48e6-b693-7d409ac30c47
Berihuete, Ángel
21db7c9f-1bb6-4fde-b3a9-26119a18cab5
Dangendorf, Sönke
ba1c5cbe-a385-41dc-8a46-da8cd36cf19d
Marcos, Marta, Calafat, Francisco M., Berihuete, Ángel and Dangendorf, Sönke
(2015)
Long-term variations in global sea level extremes.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 120 (12), .
(doi:10.1002/2015JC011173).
Abstract
Decadal to multidecadal variations in sea level extremes unrelated to mean sea level changes have been investigated using long tide gauge records distributed worldwide. A state space approach has been applied that provides robust solutions and uncertainties of the time evolving characteristics of extremes, allowing for data gaps and uneven sampling, both common features of historical sea level time series. Two different models have been formulated for the intensity and for the occurrence of extreme sea level events and have been applied independently to each tide gauge record. Our results reveal two key findings: first, the intensity and the frequency of occurrence of extreme sea levels unrelated to mean sea level vary coherently on decadal scales in most of the sites examined (63 out of 77) and, second, extreme sea level changes are regionally consistent, thus pointing toward a common large-scale forcing. This variability of extremes associated with climate drivers should be considered in the framework of climate change studies.
Text
Marcos_et_al-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research__Oceans.pdf
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More information
Accepted/In Press date: 18 December 2015
Published date: December 2015
Keywords:
sea level, extremes, state space models
Organisations:
Marine Physics and Ocean Climate
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 385254
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/385254
ISSN: 2169-9275
PURE UUID: c920ea43-84bc-473e-9d25-7712ce45ae22
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Date deposited: 21 Dec 2015 09:23
Last modified: 21 Aug 2025 09:51
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Contributors
Author:
Marta Marcos
Author:
Francisco M. Calafat
Author:
Ángel Berihuete
Author:
Sönke Dangendorf
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