How real are reproductive goals? Uncertainty and the construction of fertility preferences

Abstract

The underlying reality of fertility intentions, expectations and preferences tends to be taken for granted. This is a natural consequence of the assumption, implicit or explicit in most demographic research, that fertility behaviour is governed by rational choice. We question the reality of fertility intentions, expectations, and preferences, and propose instead that they are by and large constructed. Drawing on behavioural economics, psychology, and political science, we develop an outline theory of fertility intentions and preferences that contrasts with the classical rational choice model assumed in most work in this area.

We show that there is a relatively high frequency of uncertain responses to questions on fertility intentions and expectations and argue that the uncertainty expressed is genuine. It was largely in response to this finding that our theoretical approach was developed. The presence of uncertain answers to preference and intentions questions is acknowledged in most demographic surveys but their frequency and theoretical and empirical significance has been largely neglected.

Preferred family size may, we suggest, be a discovery rather than a goal. Demographic thinking about fertility decisions could be enriched by adopting the idea of constructed preferences from behavioural economics and psychology, together with ideas and debates in political science regarding survey response. The construction of fertility preferences and intentions can account for some hitherto unexplained anomalies in survey findings on fertility intentions and expectations. Preference construction theory provides a novel perspective on fertility intentions and preferences and on family building behaviour, and merits serious empirical investigation in this contex

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ORCID for Teresa McGowan: orcid.org/0009-0002-9231-3743

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