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On the effects of small scale space-time variability of rainfall on basin flood response

On the effects of small scale space-time variability of rainfall on basin flood response
On the effects of small scale space-time variability of rainfall on basin flood response
The spatio-temporal variability of rainfall, especially at fine temporal and spatial scales can significantly affect flood generation, leading to a large variability in the flood response and uncertainty in its prediction. In this study we quantify the impact of rainfall spatial and temporal structure on the catchment hydrological response based on a numerical experiment. Rainfall ensembles generated using a state-of-the-art space–time stochastic model are used as input into a distributed process-based hydrological model. The sensitivity of the hydrograph to several structural characteristics of storm rainfall for three soil moisture initial conditions is numerically assessed at the basin outlet of an Alpine catchment in central Switzerland. The results highlight that the flood response is strongly affected by the temporal correlation of rainfall and to a lesser extent by its spatial variability. Initial soil moisture conditions play a paramount role in mediating the response. We identify the underlying mechanistic explanations in terms of runoff generation and connectivity of saturated areas that determine the sensitivity of flood response to the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall. We show that the element that mostly influences both the flood peak and the time of peak occurrence is the clustering of saturated areas in the catchment which leads to local enhanced runoff.
flood response, hydrological modeling, stochastic rainfall modeling, STREAP
0022-1694
313-327
Paschalis, Athanasios
e7626e9f-172b-4da2-882c-bddb219f3fb6
Fatichi, Simone
2a12468d-8094-495b-922d-4d00aa0afb11
Molnar, Peter
99f2d15c-5348-4c80-bb35-fb54c133862d
Rimkus, Stefan
8b061724-37bb-4917-bdc2-f7dff02e98d4
Burlando, Paolo
5484fcec-b4d3-45e9-a72c-206ccbb5265f
Paschalis, Athanasios
e7626e9f-172b-4da2-882c-bddb219f3fb6
Fatichi, Simone
2a12468d-8094-495b-922d-4d00aa0afb11
Molnar, Peter
99f2d15c-5348-4c80-bb35-fb54c133862d
Rimkus, Stefan
8b061724-37bb-4917-bdc2-f7dff02e98d4
Burlando, Paolo
5484fcec-b4d3-45e9-a72c-206ccbb5265f

Paschalis, Athanasios, Fatichi, Simone, Molnar, Peter, Rimkus, Stefan and Burlando, Paolo (2014) On the effects of small scale space-time variability of rainfall on basin flood response. Journal of Hydrology, 514, 313-327. (doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.014).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The spatio-temporal variability of rainfall, especially at fine temporal and spatial scales can significantly affect flood generation, leading to a large variability in the flood response and uncertainty in its prediction. In this study we quantify the impact of rainfall spatial and temporal structure on the catchment hydrological response based on a numerical experiment. Rainfall ensembles generated using a state-of-the-art space–time stochastic model are used as input into a distributed process-based hydrological model. The sensitivity of the hydrograph to several structural characteristics of storm rainfall for three soil moisture initial conditions is numerically assessed at the basin outlet of an Alpine catchment in central Switzerland. The results highlight that the flood response is strongly affected by the temporal correlation of rainfall and to a lesser extent by its spatial variability. Initial soil moisture conditions play a paramount role in mediating the response. We identify the underlying mechanistic explanations in terms of runoff generation and connectivity of saturated areas that determine the sensitivity of flood response to the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall. We show that the element that mostly influences both the flood peak and the time of peak occurrence is the clustering of saturated areas in the catchment which leads to local enhanced runoff.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 7 April 2014
e-pub ahead of print date: 14 April 2014
Published date: 6 June 2014
Keywords: flood response, hydrological modeling, stochastic rainfall modeling, STREAP
Organisations: Water & Environmental Engineering Group

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 385304
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/385304
ISSN: 0022-1694
PURE UUID: 1df66397-a818-4f65-a691-2f99aa7e3de8
ORCID for Athanasios Paschalis: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-4833-9962

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Date deposited: 18 Jan 2016 16:46
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 22:14

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Contributors

Author: Athanasios Paschalis ORCID iD
Author: Simone Fatichi
Author: Peter Molnar
Author: Stefan Rimkus
Author: Paolo Burlando

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