A stochastic model for high-resolution space-time precipitation simulation

Paschalis, Athanasios, Molnar, Peter, Fatichi, Simone and Burlando, Paolo (2013) A stochastic model for high-resolution space-time precipitation simulation. Water Resources Research, 49 (12), 8400-8417. (doi:10.1002/2013WR014437).

Abstract

High-resolution space-time stochastic models for precipitation are crucial for hydrological applications related to flood risk and water resources management. In this study, we present a new stochastic space-time model, STREAP, which is capable of reproducing essential features of the statistical structure of precipitation in space and time for a wide range of scales, and at the same time can be used for continuous simulation. The model is based on a three-stage hierarchical structure that mimics the precipitation formation process. The stages describe the storm arrival process, the temporal evolution of areal mean precipitation intensity and wet area, and the evolution in time of the two-dimensional storm structure. Each stage of the model is based on appropriate stochastic modeling techniques spanning from point processes, multivariate stochastic simulation and random fields. Details of the calibration and simulation procedures in each stage are provided so that they can be easily reproduced. STREAP is applied to a case study in Switzerland using 7 years of high-resolution (2 × 2 km2; 5 min) data from weather radars. The model is also compared with a popular parsimonious space-time stochastic model based on point processes (space-time Neyman-Scott) which it outperforms mainly because of a better description of spatial precipitation. The model validation and comparison is based on an extensive evaluation of both areal and point scale statistics at hydrologically relevant temporal scales, focusing mainly on the reproduction of the probability distributions of rainfall intensities, correlation structure, and the reproduction of intermittency and wet spell duration statistics. The results shows that a more accurate description of the space-time structure of precipitation fields in stochastic models such as STREAP does indeed lead to a better performance for properties and at scales which are not used in model calibration.

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Contributors

Author: Athanasios Paschalis

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