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Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions

Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions
Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions
We present an analysis of the mean climate and climatic trends of tropical rainforest regions over the period 1960-1998, with the aid of explicit maps of forest cover and climatological databases. Until the mid-1970s most regions showed little trend in temperature, and the western Amazon experienced a net cooling probably associated with an interdecadal oscillation. Since the mid-1970s, all tropical rainforest regions have experienced a strong warming at a mean rate of 0.26 ± 0.05 °C per decade, in synchrony with a global rise in temperature that has been attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Over the study period, precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 ± 0.8% per decade (p < 5%), declining sharply in northern tropical Africa (at 3-4% per decade), declining marginally in tropical Asia and showing no significant trend in Amazonia. There is no evidence so far of a decline in precipitation in eastern Amazonia, a region thought vulnerable to climate-change-induced drying. The strong drying trend in Africa suggests that this should be a priority study region for understanding the impact of drought on tropical rainforests. We develop and use a dry-season index to study variations in the length and intensity of the dry season. Only African and Indian tropical rainforests appear to have seen a significant increase in dry-season intensity. In terms of interannual variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of temperature variations across the tropics and of precipitation fluctuations for large areas of the Americas and southeast Asia. The relation between ENSO and tropical African precipitation appears less direct.
tropical forest, amazonia, africa, asia, climate change, drought
0962-8436
311-329
Malhi, Yadvinder
5b0b372b-4a85-4018-9559-903c2bbbe15d
Wright, James
94990ecf-f8dd-4649-84f2-b28bf272e464
Malhi, Yadvinder
5b0b372b-4a85-4018-9559-903c2bbbe15d
Wright, James
94990ecf-f8dd-4649-84f2-b28bf272e464

Malhi, Yadvinder and Wright, James (2004) Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences, 359 (1443), 311-329. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2003.1433).

Record type: Article

Abstract

We present an analysis of the mean climate and climatic trends of tropical rainforest regions over the period 1960-1998, with the aid of explicit maps of forest cover and climatological databases. Until the mid-1970s most regions showed little trend in temperature, and the western Amazon experienced a net cooling probably associated with an interdecadal oscillation. Since the mid-1970s, all tropical rainforest regions have experienced a strong warming at a mean rate of 0.26 ± 0.05 °C per decade, in synchrony with a global rise in temperature that has been attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Over the study period, precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 ± 0.8% per decade (p < 5%), declining sharply in northern tropical Africa (at 3-4% per decade), declining marginally in tropical Asia and showing no significant trend in Amazonia. There is no evidence so far of a decline in precipitation in eastern Amazonia, a region thought vulnerable to climate-change-induced drying. The strong drying trend in Africa suggests that this should be a priority study region for understanding the impact of drought on tropical rainforests. We develop and use a dry-season index to study variations in the length and intensity of the dry season. Only African and Indian tropical rainforests appear to have seen a significant increase in dry-season intensity. In terms of interannual variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of temperature variations across the tropics and of precipitation fluctuations for large areas of the Americas and southeast Asia. The relation between ENSO and tropical African precipitation appears less direct.

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More information

Published date: 29 March 2004
Keywords: tropical forest, amazonia, africa, asia, climate change, drought
Organisations: Remote Sensing & Spatial Analysis

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 38539
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/38539
ISSN: 0962-8436
PURE UUID: 52998898-c4d8-4f48-adb2-e78491595346
ORCID for James Wright: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8842-2181

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 13 Jun 2006
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 03:41

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Contributors

Author: Yadvinder Malhi
Author: James Wright ORCID iD

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