Global asteroid risk analysis

Abstract

Potentially impacting asteroids were analysed for their impact risk on the Earth. To this end, the Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) tool is currently being developed. The tool’s modules are described and their validation is documented. Based on the asteroid ephemeris, the tool calculates the impact location probability distribution on the surface of the Earth (in the literature, occasionally referred to as risk corridor). NASA’s Near Earth Object (NEO) risk list served as the source for asteroid ephemerides. The Line of Variation (LOV) method was employed to find virtual impactors. While offering a simple and fast way of identifying virtual impactors, the method provides a low impactor identification rate. This is because the search space is tightly constricted to the LOV and thus excludes virtual impactors located elsewhere in the asteroid position uncertainty region. The method’s performance was evaluated and suggestions for improvements are provided. Application of the tool showed that the asteroid threat is global in nature: impact locations were distributed widely over the Earth’s surface. The global asteroid risk was estimated by combining the impact location probability distribution with Earth population data. The identification of high risk regions lead to a discussion about the dynamics of the risk associated with asteroids. The future response to an asteroid threat will depend on the risk that the asteroid poses to the population. The potential applicability of ARMOR as a decision-support tool for responding to the asteroid threat is outlined. The work is supported by the Marie Curie Initial Training Network Stardust, FP7-PEOPLE-2012-ITN, Grant Agreement 317185

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