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Vectorial capacity and vector control: reconsidering sensitivity to parameters for malaria elimination

Vectorial capacity and vector control: reconsidering sensitivity to parameters for malaria elimination
Vectorial capacity and vector control: reconsidering sensitivity to parameters for malaria elimination
Background: Major gains have been made in reducing malaria transmission in many parts of the world, principally by scaling-up coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying. Historically, choice of vector control intervention has been largely guided by a parameter sensitivity analysis of George Macdonald's theory of vectorial capacity that suggested prioritizing methods that kill adult mosquitoes. While this advice has been highly successful for transmission suppression, there is a need to revisit these arguments as policymakers in certain areas consider which combinations of interventions are required to eliminate malaria.

Methods and Results: Using analytical solutions to updated equations for vectorial capacity we build on previous work to show that, while adult killing methods can be highly effective under many circumstances, other vector control methods are frequently required to fill effective coverage gaps. These can arise due to pre-existing or developing mosquito physiological and behavioral refractoriness but also due to additive changes in the relative importance of different vector species for transmission. Furthermore, the optimal combination of interventions will depend on the operational constraints and costs associated with reaching high coverage levels with each intervention.

Conclusions: Reaching specific policy goals, such as elimination, in defined contexts requires increasingly non-generic advice from modelling. Our results emphasize the importance of measuring baseline epidemiology, intervention coverage, vector ecology and program operational constraints in predicting expected outcomes with different combinations of interventions.
elmination, malaria, modelling, operational research, policy, vector control
0035-9203
107-117
Brady, Oliver J.
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Godfray, H. Charles J.
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Gething, Peter W.
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Cohen, Justin M.
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McKenzie, F. Ellis
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Perkins, T. Alex
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Reiner, Robert C.
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Tusting, Lucy S.
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Sinka, Marianne E.
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Moyes, Catherine L.
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Eckhoff, Philip A.
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Scott, Thomas W.
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Lindsay, Steven W.
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Hay, Simon I.
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Smith, David L.
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Brady, Oliver J.
2acbd374-26d3-4e56-9e19-558eef1d4f9b
Godfray, H. Charles J.
69326e74-4061-42de-9cf4-540ed7563a01
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Gething, Peter W.
6afb7d8c-8816-4c03-ae73-55951c8b197f
Cohen, Justin M.
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McKenzie, F. Ellis
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Perkins, T. Alex
6a3765cc-2473-4aff-8735-b8174b64b34e
Reiner, Robert C.
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Tusting, Lucy S.
880eb8c3-5ba1-467b-8245-61436077e4b5
Sinka, Marianne E.
4f68b602-3d31-4054-8ac7-b49fc9715288
Moyes, Catherine L.
274a614b-3830-4796-99b2-736758a6611b
Eckhoff, Philip A.
ea70dcd1-13b2-4025-8d0c-267641417841
Scott, Thomas W.
86c71ead-d024-44a5-8cc7-ac6544c2e6d2
Lindsay, Steven W.
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Hay, Simon I.
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Smith, David L.
5c918948-ded2-42d8-82c1-a746a4bc3b6e

Brady, Oliver J., Godfray, H. Charles J., Tatem, Andrew J., Gething, Peter W., Cohen, Justin M., McKenzie, F. Ellis, Perkins, T. Alex, Reiner, Robert C., Tusting, Lucy S., Sinka, Marianne E., Moyes, Catherine L., Eckhoff, Philip A., Scott, Thomas W., Lindsay, Steven W., Hay, Simon I. and Smith, David L. (2016) Vectorial capacity and vector control: reconsidering sensitivity to parameters for malaria elimination. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 110 (2), 107-117. (doi:10.1093/trstmh/trv113). (PMID:26822603)

Record type: Article

Abstract

Background: Major gains have been made in reducing malaria transmission in many parts of the world, principally by scaling-up coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying. Historically, choice of vector control intervention has been largely guided by a parameter sensitivity analysis of George Macdonald's theory of vectorial capacity that suggested prioritizing methods that kill adult mosquitoes. While this advice has been highly successful for transmission suppression, there is a need to revisit these arguments as policymakers in certain areas consider which combinations of interventions are required to eliminate malaria.

Methods and Results: Using analytical solutions to updated equations for vectorial capacity we build on previous work to show that, while adult killing methods can be highly effective under many circumstances, other vector control methods are frequently required to fill effective coverage gaps. These can arise due to pre-existing or developing mosquito physiological and behavioral refractoriness but also due to additive changes in the relative importance of different vector species for transmission. Furthermore, the optimal combination of interventions will depend on the operational constraints and costs associated with reaching high coverage levels with each intervention.

Conclusions: Reaching specific policy goals, such as elimination, in defined contexts requires increasingly non-generic advice from modelling. Our results emphasize the importance of measuring baseline epidemiology, intervention coverage, vector ecology and program operational constraints in predicting expected outcomes with different combinations of interventions.

Text
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Accepted/In Press date: 8 December 2015
Published date: February 2016
Keywords: elmination, malaria, modelling, operational research, policy, vector control
Organisations: Global Env Change & Earth Observation, WorldPop, Geography & Environment, Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 386614
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/386614
ISSN: 0035-9203
PURE UUID: de5c394e-492a-412e-9b70-70a5546af8b3
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

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Date deposited: 03 Feb 2016 09:36
Last modified: 17 Sep 2019 00:43

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Contributors

Author: Oliver J. Brady
Author: H. Charles J. Godfray
Author: Andrew J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: Peter W. Gething
Author: Justin M. Cohen
Author: F. Ellis McKenzie
Author: T. Alex Perkins
Author: Robert C. Reiner
Author: Lucy S. Tusting
Author: Marianne E. Sinka
Author: Catherine L. Moyes
Author: Philip A. Eckhoff
Author: Thomas W. Scott
Author: Steven W. Lindsay
Author: Simon I. Hay
Author: David L. Smith

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