A comparative assessment of modal shift policies (MSPs) in the passenger transport sector in Korea

Abstract

The Marco Polo Programme in the EU was launched in 2003 to stimulate modal shift from trucks to trains or ships. There may be potential for similar programmes in the passenger sector, given the implementation of dynamic Model Shift Policies (MSPs) in the logistics sector. This thesis will focus on the question: ‘What is an effective MSP from the car to public transport in the passenger sector in South Korea?’, ‘What is the best combination of MSPs?’, and ‘What factors influence the transport mode choice of commuters?” The main MSPs considered in this thesis are: 1) the commuting cost subsidy for public transport users, 2) additional parking fees for car users, and 3) the congestion charges for car users.

In order to investigate the relative effectiveness of these policies, stated preference data were obtained from 767 respondents, who work in the Gangnam area of Seoul, through an online survey that took place in early 2013. A full factorial design was used for the purpose of the survey to estimate the main effects and interactions without correlation. Various binary standard logit models with alternative-specific, generic and covariate variables were developed to identify the effectiveness of MSP and understand what factors affect people’s mode choice decisions. In order to overcome limitations of standard logit by allowing for random taste variation, mixed logit models are developed. In addition, through various models both without and with interaction terms, the modal shift effects of the combined MSPs, as well as single MSP, are compared. According to the change of allocation ratio of two combined MSPs (e.g. subsidy 0% : parking 100% ? subsidy 10% : parking 90%), the market share of travel mode was also evaluated to understand interaction terms. This research offers numerical evidence of negative modal shift synergy effect for three combinations of MSP.

With a view to forecasting the modal shift effects of socio-economic groups and a more deep understanding of the characteristics of each group, the segmentation methods were used. An equity impact analysis of MSPs has been conducted to obtain the Compensating Variation Per Person (CVPP). In addition, the ratio of the CVPP to the average income of each income group is calculated to judge whether each MSP is a progressive or regressive policy. The expenditure and revenue of MSPs are calculated. In addition, how revenue from MSPs should be spent in order to achieve a better transport system is considered.

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ORCID for Jonathan Preston: orcid.org/0000-0002-6866-049X

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