Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system
Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system
This article describes the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 upgrades include an increase in horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (N216–0.7°) and the ocean (0.25°), and implementation of a 3D-Var assimilation system for ocean and sea-ice conditions. GloSea5 shows improved year-to-year predictions of the major modes of variability. In the Tropics, predictions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are improved with reduced errors in the West Pacific. In the Extratropics, GloSea5 shows unprecedented levels of forecast skill and reliability for both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. We also find useful levels of skill for the western North Pacific Subtropical High which largely determines summer precipitation over East Asia.
seasonal forecasting, ensembles, Arctic Oscillation, ENSO, WNPSTH, MJO
1072-1084
MacLachlan, C.
d9e4c984-15a8-4e21-972a-44d0977c90dc
Arribas, A.
3aa8eb32-6de7-44fd-ab37-9a59a3de5604
Peterson, K.A.
9fb01a7d-beca-448e-8c00-079ff77c44a6
Maidens, A.
447f7a45-298c-40e7-a7a7-883190de29e9
Fereday, D.
8d31bea9-3a1c-447f-ad0d-e5fd3b375a41
Scaife, A.A.
14a2e5ad-484f-44bc-b17b-a3c1d9bbe248
Gordon, M.
ca5edb93-215e-492c-9f4d-915a8783fd52
Vellinga, M.
6eb3fa71-68c3-4036-b810-f6de95ad174e
Williams, A.
5906f63e-1283-4a30-9ec1-74d19d61b328
Comer, R.E.
f0209597-6a5e-4556-b3f3-c822f15de070
Camp, J.
1da2af2c-67df-4cc4-aa2c-db06a6afa04d
Xavier, P.
f4eb1c29-5fef-4e27-9f3f-3131dc0114f0
Madec, G.
7e2ec04b-896a-4861-b2d0-b74f39d748c2
April 2015
MacLachlan, C.
d9e4c984-15a8-4e21-972a-44d0977c90dc
Arribas, A.
3aa8eb32-6de7-44fd-ab37-9a59a3de5604
Peterson, K.A.
9fb01a7d-beca-448e-8c00-079ff77c44a6
Maidens, A.
447f7a45-298c-40e7-a7a7-883190de29e9
Fereday, D.
8d31bea9-3a1c-447f-ad0d-e5fd3b375a41
Scaife, A.A.
14a2e5ad-484f-44bc-b17b-a3c1d9bbe248
Gordon, M.
ca5edb93-215e-492c-9f4d-915a8783fd52
Vellinga, M.
6eb3fa71-68c3-4036-b810-f6de95ad174e
Williams, A.
5906f63e-1283-4a30-9ec1-74d19d61b328
Comer, R.E.
f0209597-6a5e-4556-b3f3-c822f15de070
Camp, J.
1da2af2c-67df-4cc4-aa2c-db06a6afa04d
Xavier, P.
f4eb1c29-5fef-4e27-9f3f-3131dc0114f0
Madec, G.
7e2ec04b-896a-4861-b2d0-b74f39d748c2
MacLachlan, C., Arribas, A., Peterson, K.A., Maidens, A., Fereday, D., Scaife, A.A., Gordon, M., Vellinga, M., Williams, A., Comer, R.E., Camp, J., Xavier, P. and Madec, G.
(2015)
Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689), .
(doi:10.1002/qj.2396).
Abstract
This article describes the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 upgrades include an increase in horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (N216–0.7°) and the ocean (0.25°), and implementation of a 3D-Var assimilation system for ocean and sea-ice conditions. GloSea5 shows improved year-to-year predictions of the major modes of variability. In the Tropics, predictions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are improved with reduced errors in the West Pacific. In the Extratropics, GloSea5 shows unprecedented levels of forecast skill and reliability for both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. We also find useful levels of skill for the western North Pacific Subtropical High which largely determines summer precipitation over East Asia.
Text
qj2396.pdf
- Version of Record
More information
Published date: April 2015
Keywords:
seasonal forecasting, ensembles, Arctic Oscillation, ENSO, WNPSTH, MJO
Organisations:
Marine Systems Modelling
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 388132
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/388132
ISSN: 0035-9009
PURE UUID: 7abecff9-2f95-4723-a708-d49456a92719
Catalogue record
Date deposited: 18 Feb 2016 15:05
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 22:52
Export record
Altmetrics
Contributors
Author:
C. MacLachlan
Author:
A. Arribas
Author:
K.A. Peterson
Author:
A. Maidens
Author:
D. Fereday
Author:
A.A. Scaife
Author:
M. Gordon
Author:
M. Vellinga
Author:
A. Williams
Author:
R.E. Comer
Author:
J. Camp
Author:
P. Xavier
Author:
G. Madec
Download statistics
Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.
View more statistics