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Exploring the spatiotemporal drivers of malaria elimination in Europe

Exploring the spatiotemporal drivers of malaria elimination in Europe
Exploring the spatiotemporal drivers of malaria elimination in Europe
Background: Europe once had widespread malaria, but today it is free from endemic transmission. Changing land use, agricultural practices, housing quality, urbanization, climate change, and improved healthcare are among the many factors thought to have played a role in the declines of malaria seen, but their effects and relative contributions have rarely been quantified.

Methods: Spatial datasets on changes in climate, wealth, life expectancy, urbanization, and land use trends over the past century were combined with datasets depicting the reduction in malaria transmission across 31 European countries, and the relationships were explored. Moreover, the conditions in current malaria-eliminating countries were compared with those in Europe at the time of declining transmission and elimination to assess similarities.

Results/conclusions: Indicators relating to socio-economic improvements such as wealth, life expectancy and urbanization were strongly correlated with the decline of malaria in Europe, whereas those describing climatic and land use changes showed weaker relationships. Present-day malaria-elimination countries have now arrived at similar socio-economic indicator levels as European countries at the time malaria elimination was achieved, offering hope for achievement of sustainable elimination.
malaria elimination, europe, gid, malaria risk mapping
1475-2875
1-13
Zhao, Xia
00a71151-01bb-4d8f-ac51-53c7026b8591
Smith, David L.
5c918948-ded2-42d8-82c1-a746a4bc3b6e
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Zhao, Xia
00a71151-01bb-4d8f-ac51-53c7026b8591
Smith, David L.
5c918948-ded2-42d8-82c1-a746a4bc3b6e
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e

Zhao, Xia, Smith, David L. and Tatem, Andrew J. (2016) Exploring the spatiotemporal drivers of malaria elimination in Europe. Malaria Journal, 15 (122), 1-13. (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1175-z).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Background: Europe once had widespread malaria, but today it is free from endemic transmission. Changing land use, agricultural practices, housing quality, urbanization, climate change, and improved healthcare are among the many factors thought to have played a role in the declines of malaria seen, but their effects and relative contributions have rarely been quantified.

Methods: Spatial datasets on changes in climate, wealth, life expectancy, urbanization, and land use trends over the past century were combined with datasets depicting the reduction in malaria transmission across 31 European countries, and the relationships were explored. Moreover, the conditions in current malaria-eliminating countries were compared with those in Europe at the time of declining transmission and elimination to assess similarities.

Results/conclusions: Indicators relating to socio-economic improvements such as wealth, life expectancy and urbanization were strongly correlated with the decline of malaria in Europe, whereas those describing climatic and land use changes showed weaker relationships. Present-day malaria-elimination countries have now arrived at similar socio-economic indicator levels as European countries at the time malaria elimination was achieved, offering hope for achievement of sustainable elimination.

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Accepted/In Press date: 17 February 2016
Published date: 4 March 2016
Keywords: malaria elimination, europe, gid, malaria risk mapping
Organisations: Global Env Change & Earth Observation, WorldPop, Geography & Environment, Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 389341
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/389341
ISSN: 1475-2875
PURE UUID: 58d2a9b9-8a0e-4bd1-af47-3e255195ec54
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 04 Mar 2016 16:26
Last modified: 03 Dec 2019 01:38

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Contributors

Author: Xia Zhao
Author: David L. Smith
Author: Andrew J. Tatem ORCID iD

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