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Re-entry prediction of spent rocket bodies in GTO

Re-entry prediction of spent rocket bodies in GTO
Re-entry prediction of spent rocket bodies in GTO
Spent upper stages are bodies consisting of components likely to survive re-entry, for example propellant tanks. Therefore, the re-entry of upper stages might be associated with high on-ground casualty risk. This paper presents a tool for re-entry prediction of spent rocket bodies in GTO based exclusively on Two Line Element set (TLE) data. TLE analysis and filtering, spacecraft parameters estimation, and combined state and parameters estimation are the main building blocks of the tool. The performance of the tool is assessed by computing the accuracy of the re-entry prediction of 92 GTO objects, which re-entered in the past 50 years.
Gondelach, David, Jonathan
693aa9ad-3625-4ec6-867c-101fa9c98b00
Lidtke, Aleksander
665c1a9b-a70d-4d73-bf48-4a6093d856b7
Armellin, Roberto
61950d5c-3dcf-45f5-b391-7e8c6ffb8e6f
Colombo, Camilla
595ced96-9494-40f2-9763-ad4a0f96bc86
Lewis, Hugh
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Funke, Quirin
a15f4137-339f-428f-9f62-d4ccc076bfcd
Flohrer, Tim
564d36e8-ba75-4090-ad74-d87d352fe00c
Gondelach, David, Jonathan
693aa9ad-3625-4ec6-867c-101fa9c98b00
Lidtke, Aleksander
665c1a9b-a70d-4d73-bf48-4a6093d856b7
Armellin, Roberto
61950d5c-3dcf-45f5-b391-7e8c6ffb8e6f
Colombo, Camilla
595ced96-9494-40f2-9763-ad4a0f96bc86
Lewis, Hugh
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Funke, Quirin
a15f4137-339f-428f-9f62-d4ccc076bfcd
Flohrer, Tim
564d36e8-ba75-4090-ad74-d87d352fe00c

Gondelach, David, Jonathan, Lidtke, Aleksander and Armellin, Roberto et al. (2016) Re-entry prediction of spent rocket bodies in GTO. 26th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting, Napa, CA, Napa, United States. 14 - 18 Feb 2016. 19 pp . (Submitted)

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

Spent upper stages are bodies consisting of components likely to survive re-entry, for example propellant tanks. Therefore, the re-entry of upper stages might be associated with high on-ground casualty risk. This paper presents a tool for re-entry prediction of spent rocket bodies in GTO based exclusively on Two Line Element set (TLE) data. TLE analysis and filtering, spacecraft parameters estimation, and combined state and parameters estimation are the main building blocks of the tool. The performance of the tool is assessed by computing the accuracy of the re-entry prediction of 92 GTO objects, which re-entered in the past 50 years.

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More information

Submitted date: 4 March 2016
Venue - Dates: 26th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting, Napa, CA, Napa, United States, 2016-02-14 - 2016-02-18
Organisations: Astronautics Group, Education Hub

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 389640
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/389640
PURE UUID: 332d167e-5095-4fab-9fdf-ff032c99a2a0
ORCID for David, Jonathan Gondelach: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8511-9523
ORCID for Camilla Colombo: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9636-9360

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 11 Mar 2016 14:09
Last modified: 16 Jul 2020 00:20

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