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Processing two line element sets to facilitate re-entry prediction of spent rocket bodies from geostationary transfer orbit

Processing two line element sets to facilitate re-entry prediction of spent rocket bodies from geostationary transfer orbit
Processing two line element sets to facilitate re-entry prediction of spent rocket bodies from geostationary transfer orbit
Predicting the re-entry of space objects enables the risk they pose to the ground population to be managed. The more accurate the re-entry forecast, the more cost-efficient risk mitigation measures can be put in place. However, at present, the only publicly available ephemerides (two line element sets, TLEs) should not be used for accurate re-entry prediction directly. They may contain erroneous state vectors, which need to be filtered out. Also, the object’s physical parameters (ballistic and solar radiation pressure coefficients) need to be estimated to enable accurate propagation. These estimates are only valid between events that change object’s physical properties, e.g. collisions and fragmentations. Thus, these events need to be identified amongst the TLEs. This paper presents the TLE analysis methodology, which enables outlying TLEs and space events to be identified. It is then demonstrated how various TLE filtering stages improve the accuracy of the TLE-based re-entry prediction.
Lidtke, Aleksander A.
665c1a9b-a70d-4d73-bf48-4a6093d856b7
Gondelach, David, Jonathan
693aa9ad-3625-4ec6-867c-101fa9c98b00
Armellin, Roberto
61950d5c-3dcf-45f5-b391-7e8c6ffb8e6f
Colombo, Camilla
595ced96-9494-40f2-9763-ad4a0f96bc86
Lewis, Hugh G.
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Funke, Quirin
a15f4137-339f-428f-9f62-d4ccc076bfcd
Flohrer, Tim
564d36e8-ba75-4090-ad74-d87d352fe00c
Lidtke, Aleksander A.
665c1a9b-a70d-4d73-bf48-4a6093d856b7
Gondelach, David, Jonathan
693aa9ad-3625-4ec6-867c-101fa9c98b00
Armellin, Roberto
61950d5c-3dcf-45f5-b391-7e8c6ffb8e6f
Colombo, Camilla
595ced96-9494-40f2-9763-ad4a0f96bc86
Lewis, Hugh G.
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Funke, Quirin
a15f4137-339f-428f-9f62-d4ccc076bfcd
Flohrer, Tim
564d36e8-ba75-4090-ad74-d87d352fe00c

Lidtke, Aleksander A., Gondelach, David, Jonathan, Armellin, Roberto, Colombo, Camilla, Lewis, Hugh G., Funke, Quirin and Flohrer, Tim (2016) Processing two line element sets to facilitate re-entry prediction of spent rocket bodies from geostationary transfer orbit. International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques, Germany. 14 - 17 Mar 2016.

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

Predicting the re-entry of space objects enables the risk they pose to the ground population to be managed. The more accurate the re-entry forecast, the more cost-efficient risk mitigation measures can be put in place. However, at present, the only publicly available ephemerides (two line element sets, TLEs) should not be used for accurate re-entry prediction directly. They may contain erroneous state vectors, which need to be filtered out. Also, the object’s physical parameters (ballistic and solar radiation pressure coefficients) need to be estimated to enable accurate propagation. These estimates are only valid between events that change object’s physical properties, e.g. collisions and fragmentations. Thus, these events need to be identified amongst the TLEs. This paper presents the TLE analysis methodology, which enables outlying TLEs and space events to be identified. It is then demonstrated how various TLE filtering stages improve the accuracy of the TLE-based re-entry prediction.

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More information

Published date: 16 March 2016
Venue - Dates: International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques, Germany, 2016-03-14 - 2016-03-17
Organisations: Astronautics Group, Education Hub

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 390088
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/390088
PURE UUID: 4d89204c-c6c4-41ec-920c-a77387756785
ORCID for David, Jonathan Gondelach: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8511-9523
ORCID for Camilla Colombo: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9636-9360

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 21 Mar 2016 12:47
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 13:24

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Contributors

Author: David, Jonathan Gondelach ORCID iD
Author: Camilla Colombo ORCID iD
Author: Hugh G. Lewis
Author: Quirin Funke
Author: Tim Flohrer

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