Quantitative modelling in cognitive ergonomics: predicting signals passed at danger

Moray, Neville, Groeger, John and Stanton, Neville (2016) Quantitative modelling in cognitive ergonomics: predicting signals passed at danger. Ergonomics. (doi:10.1080/00140139.2016.1159735). (PMID:27097331)

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper shows how to combine field observations, experimental data, and mathematical modeling to produce quantitative explanations and predictions of complex events in human-machine interaction. As an example we consider a major railway accident. In 1999 a commuter train passed a red signal near Ladbroke Grove, UK, into the path of an express. We use the Public Inquiry Report, "black box" data, and accident and engineering reports, to construct a case history of the accident. We show how to combine field data with mathematical modelling to estimate the probability that the driver observed and identified the state of the signals, and checked their status. Our methodology can explain the SPAD (“Signal Passed At Danger”), generate recommendations about signal design and placement, and provide quantitative guidance for the design of safer railway systems speed limits and the location of signals

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