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A multivariate design framework for river confluences

A multivariate design framework for river confluences
A multivariate design framework for river confluences
Throughout the last decade copula functions were widely used to assess a wide range of hydrological problems, often focusing on two distinct variables. In many of these studies it was ignored whether the two variables of interest actually occurred simultaneously (e.g. two annual maximum time series were analysed in a multivariate statistical framework). Here we introduce a novel approach to derive bivariate design events using copula functions allowing both simultaneous and non-simultaneous occurrence of the variables to be modelled. The methodology is exemplarily applied to assess the combined flood occurrence at the confluence of the rivers Rhine and Sieg (Germany). The results underline the validity of the methodology. Employing a hydrodynamic numerical model furthermore shows that commonly used statistical approaches to select a single design event out of a vast number of possible combinations can be critical for practical design purposes.
0262-6667
471-482
Bender, Jens
22c513a6-ef6d-4398-b50c-f3e311d6f2f3
Wahl, Thomas
6506794a-1f35-4803-b7f7-98702e57e667
Müller, Alfred
e1d84ce8-6a9b-4445-a5d4-a7802143dded
Jensen, Jürgen
5188f969-c5e8-47e2-9e27-771067712095
Bender, Jens
22c513a6-ef6d-4398-b50c-f3e311d6f2f3
Wahl, Thomas
6506794a-1f35-4803-b7f7-98702e57e667
Müller, Alfred
e1d84ce8-6a9b-4445-a5d4-a7802143dded
Jensen, Jürgen
5188f969-c5e8-47e2-9e27-771067712095

Bender, Jens, Wahl, Thomas, Müller, Alfred and Jensen, Jürgen (2016) A multivariate design framework for river confluences. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (3), 471-482. (doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1052816).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Throughout the last decade copula functions were widely used to assess a wide range of hydrological problems, often focusing on two distinct variables. In many of these studies it was ignored whether the two variables of interest actually occurred simultaneously (e.g. two annual maximum time series were analysed in a multivariate statistical framework). Here we introduce a novel approach to derive bivariate design events using copula functions allowing both simultaneous and non-simultaneous occurrence of the variables to be modelled. The methodology is exemplarily applied to assess the combined flood occurrence at the confluence of the rivers Rhine and Sieg (Germany). The results underline the validity of the methodology. Employing a hydrodynamic numerical model furthermore shows that commonly used statistical approaches to select a single design event out of a vast number of possible combinations can be critical for practical design purposes.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 23 April 2015
Published date: 21 January 2016
Organisations: Energy & Climate Change Group

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 393844
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/393844
ISSN: 0262-6667
PURE UUID: 4fdffa3b-6283-477e-9471-2e042f6fd85d

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Date deposited: 06 May 2016 10:55
Last modified: 17 Jul 2017 19:04

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Contributors

Author: Jens Bender
Author: Thomas Wahl
Author: Alfred Müller
Author: Jürgen Jensen

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